Space Weather and Atmosphere team
Our ambition
Large explosions on the Sun known as coronal mass ejections can spew out billions of tons of charged particles and magnetic field into space. When these disturbances reach the Earth they can trigger geomagnetic storms and increase particle radiation levels, causing disruption to power grids, satellites, aviation, and a host of other dependent businesses. These effects are known as Space Weather. Solar variations are also linked to changes in the atmosphere and surface temperature in the Polar Regions but how this occurs and how it affects weather and climate are open questions.
The goal of the Space Weather and Atmosphere team is to understand how solar variations affect the Earth’s space radiation environment, upper atmosphere and climate in the Polar Regions.
Our research provides the information needed by the Space Industry, UK Insurance and Government to mitigate the effects of severe Space Weather, and to assess the solar contribution to climate change in the Polar Regions.
Team priorities
Science
- Space radiation environment. To measure, simulate and predict changes in space radiation environment as they affect satellites, and to develop realistic scenarios of severe space weather events. These results are being used to assess which satellite orbits are most at risk and to develop better mitigation guidelines. They are also being used to provide real-time situation awareness for satellite operators.
- Atmospheric heating. To measure the heating and upward expansion of the polar atmosphere due to electrical currents set up during geomagnetic storms. This process, known as Joule heating, is the largest uncertainty in orbit prediction for satellites and space debris. The results will help provide better collision avoidance measures between satellites and space debris in low Earth orbit.
- Space-atmosphere coupling. To measure changes in atmospheric chemistry caused by particle precipitation and assess how they can affect the heating and cooling of the upper atmosphere. These results are being used in models to determine how they couple through the atmosphere to affect surface temperature and to determine their effect on polar climate.
- Solar effects on climate. To measure changes in the geoelectric field and understand how it can affect the atmosphere. Changes in the geoelectric field between the ground and the ionosphere have been linked to changes in atmospheric temperature, from the surface upwards.
Technology, innovation and training
- Using High Frequency over-the-horizon radars to understand coupling between the Sun, solar wind and the upper atmosphere, and the transport of charged particles in the radiation belts
- Using Medium Frequency radars to measure high altitude winds and atmospheric circulation in the polar vortex
- Developing state-of-the-art sub-millimetre radiometer technology to measure upper atmosphere winds and chemistry with Cambridge University
- Using an array of remote, low power magnetometers to measure changes in the geomagnetic field and electrical currents generated by Space Weather
- Using the BAS radiation belt model to simulate and predict the Earth’s radiation environment for satellites (a model equivalent to a general circulation model in atmospheric science)
- Exploiting data collected by constellations of satellites on charged particles, electromagnetic fields and atmospheric composition
- Training young scientists via PhD studentships with the Cambridge Earth System Science NERC Doctoral Training Partnership, the Open University, and via short term student vacation projects
Influencing and leading international programmes
- Continue setting scientific priorities as one of the PI Groups in the international SuperDARN radar network, and the AARDDVARK radio receiver consortium
- Continue leading the European Union SPACESTORM project
- Continue to play a leading role in the International Association of Geophysics and Aeronomy (IAGA), and the VLF/ELF Remote Sensing of the Ionosphere and Magnetosphere (VERSIM) scientific planning
Stakeholder engagement
- Continue providing expert advice to the Cabinet Office and UK Government departments through our membership of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group reporting to the Department of Business, Innovation and Science
- Continue our collaborations with the space industry including UK insurance, European satellite operators and satellite designers, through our leadership of the European SPACESTORM project
- Organising an annual end-user lunch at the European Space Weather Week jointly with the European Space Agency
- Continue representing the UK on the Council of the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar and supporting UK users of the facility
Public engagement
- Disseminating information by publishing our results in high-impact peer reviewed Journals, giving presentations at international conferences and issuing press releases when appropriate
- Organising and running scientific sessions at International conferences
Space Weather Observatory
Assessing Space Weather impacts
THeMES
The thermosphere is the uppermost layer of our atmosphere at the edge of space (85 to 1000 km altitude). Within this region orbit thousands of satellites worth billions of pounds …
Rad-Sat
Rad-Sat is a NERC Highlight Topic that brings together a consortium of scientists from 5 different UK research groups, stakeholders from the space industry and a network of international collaborators. …
SuperDARN
The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) has been operating as an international co-operative organisation for over 20 years, and has proved to be one of the most successful tools …
IMAGE Auroral Boundary Data
The objective of this project was to investigate whether magnetic reconnection in the space environment has a characteristic scale in space and time by characterising statistically the spatial and temporal …
The Global Electric Circuit
Weather and climate prediction are inevitably limited by incomplete knowledge of the Earth system and its external influences. One under-explored and consequently controversial area of research is the meteorological influence …
Low Power Magnetometer (LPM) Network
Access data from the Low Power Magnetometer (LPM) network
EISCAT Science Support
The EISCAT science support group is a collaboration between the British Antarctic Survey and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, funded via the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) EISCAT, the European …
Electron Acceleration in the Radiation Belts of Earth, Jupiter & Saturn
Radiation belts of very high energy electrons and protons can form around some planets – at the Earth these large donut shaped regions in space are often called the Van …
The effects of long-term changes in the Earth’s magnetic field
The Earth’s magnetic field plays a key role in the interaction between the solar wind and near-Earth space, which affects the upper atmosphere (~100-500 km altitude) in particular in the …
A High-Order Model of the Earth’s External and Induced Magnetic Field
For centuries people have used magnetic compasses to guide them on their way and explore new territories. This has led scientists to embark on their own journeys of discovery about …
Quantifying energetic particle precipitation into the atmosphere (QEPPA)
QEPPA is a joint project between the British Antarctic Survey and the Space physics group at Lancaster University. The objective of QEPPA is to work out the amount of charged …
SPACESTORM
SPACESTORM is a collaborative project to model space weather events and find ways to mitigate their effects on satellites. Over the last ten years the number of satellites on orbit …
Whole Atmosphere Climate Change
The near-Earth space environment is host to an increasing amount of advanced, satellite-based technology, used for both commercial and scientific purposes. To safeguard this technology and ensure that we can …
SWIGS
Certain ground based technologies, such as electrical power grids, pipelines and railways are susceptible to the effects of Space Weather. Changes in the way the magnetic fields of the … Medal win for space weather scientist
13 November, 2020
The award recognises Professor Horne’s unique ability to combine basic and applied research to develop useful space weather products.
Space weather monitoring receives funding boost
27 June, 2020
Space weather research at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) receives a funding boost of around £2M today (Saturday 27 June) from the SWIMMR (Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) programme. …
New album Aurora Musicalis brings the ‘sounds of space’ to the public
6 May, 2020
A new album with the unique ‘sounds of space’ recorded from Antarctica is released free today (6 May 2020). Aurora Musicalis contains the natural radio ‘sounds’ of our planet, recorded …
Appleton Prize awarded to Professor Richard Horne
4 March, 2020
British Antarctic Survey is pleased to announce the Appleton Prize 2020 has been awarded to Professor Richard Horne, Head of the Space Weather and Atmosphere science team at British Antarctic …
Space weather ‘super storms’ occurred every 25 years
29 January, 2020
A ‘great’ space weather super-storm large enough to cause significant disruption to our electronic and networked systems occurred on average once in every 25 years. The results are published today …
Space weather study wins accolade
4 November, 2019
A team of international researchers, including Professor Richard Horne from British Antarctic Survey, has been awarded best research study from the journal Risk Analysis for 2019. The study, led by …
Funding boost for space weather research
24 September, 2019
Space weather research gets a boost this week with a £20m fund announced by the UK Prime Minister. Space weather, such as flares or winds from the Sun’s surface or …
Space weather causes radiation damage to satellites
1 July, 2019
The use of electric propulsion for raising satellites into geostationary orbit can result in significant solar cell degradation according to a new study. The extended journey results in greater exposure …
Scientist awarded prestigious award
15 January, 2019
British Antarctic Survey space weather scientist, Dr Mark Clilverd, has been awarded a prestigious award from the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) in their 2019 Awards. The award recognises Mark as …
‘Sounds of Space’ from Antarctica feature in space simulation game
11 December, 2018
Amazing, natural, ‘sounds of space’, have been incorporated into the new exploration gameplay in Elite Dangerous
A new way to create Saturn’s radiation belts
29 November, 2018
A team of international scientists from BAS, University of Iowa and GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has discovered a new method to explain how radiation belts are formed around …
Satellites more at risk from fast solar wind than a major space storm
3 September, 2018
Satellites are more likely to be at risk from high-speed solar wind than a major geomagnetic storm according to a new UK-US study published this week in the Journal Space …
Million fold increase in the power of waves near Jupiter’s moon Ganymede
8 August, 2018
Understanding of how Jupiter’s magnetic field interacts with its moons and with intense particle radiation.
Most advanced space weather radar to be built in Arctic
23 August, 2017
The most advanced space weather radar in the world is to be built in the Arctic by an international partnership including the UK, thanks to new investment, including in the …
New study reveals potential cost of solar storms
18 January, 2017
The daily U.S. economic cost from solar storm-induced electricity blackouts could total more than $40 billion, with more than half the loss occurring outside the blackout zone, says new study. …
Royal Astronomical Society honours BAS scientist
13 January, 2017
Dr Mervyn Freeman, Senior Space Weather Researcher at British Antarctic Survey, has been awarded the prestigious Chapman Medal in Geophysics by the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS). The medal recognises his …
FEATURED PAPER: Energetic Electron Hazard
13 June, 2016
Energetic electrons are an important space weather hazard. In this paper we apply extreme value analysis to 16 years of operational satellite data from the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellites …
PRESS RELEASE: New season – ambitious science
23 November, 2015
New season tackles ambitious science and logistical challenges The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) 2015/16 field season is underway with dozens of scientists and support staff – together with planes and tonnes …
NEWS STORY: Space weather features at free event
4 June, 2015
FREE event: ‘Discover Antarctica’ at British Geological Survey Open Day, Saturday 27 June, 10am-4pm Staff from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) will showcase its work at this year’s British Geological Survey …
NEWS STORY: NERC placement offered
6 May, 2015
NERC Research Experience Placement 2015 A Research Experience Placement supported by EnvEast DTP and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) is available at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) this …
NEWS STORY: Lessons from electrons
14 October, 2014
Study of electrons in space could help weather forecasting Researchers have discovered a formerly undetected impact of space weather on the polar atmosphere, which may explain some previously unexplained variations …
NEWS STORY: Changes in upper atmosphere
23 May, 2014
Earth’s magnetic field is important for climate change at high altitudes New research, published this week, has provided scientists with greater insight into the climatic changes happening in the upper …
NEWS STORY: Improving space weather forecasting
9 June, 2013
Space weather forecasting system used by satellite operators Weather forecasting is a tricky enough job on Earth, but doing it for the outer atmosphere and beyond is even more problematic. …
NEWS STORY: BAS involved in NASA mission
30 August, 2012
British Antarctic Survey scientists involved in NASA ‘space weather’ mission WASHINGTON — NASA’s Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP), the first twin-spacecraft mission designed to explore the Earth’s radiation belts, launched …
PRESS RELEASE: Space weather forecasting
29 March, 2011
Major EU-funded space weather initiative launched and managed in UK A major EU-funded initiative to improve ‘space weather’ forecasting will hold its inaugural meeting in the UK on Tuesday 29 …
PRESS RELEASE: New research sheds light on Aurora
20 October, 2010
New space research settles years of scientific debate New space research published this week (Thursday 21 October) in the journal Nature, has settled decades of scientific debate. Researchers from the …
ANTARCTIC BLOG: BBC arrives at Halley #3
5 February, 2016 by Athena Dinar
“I feel like I’m home” says BBC weather forecaster Peter Gibbs as he sets foot on the Brunt Ice Shelf. It’s an emotional moment for him; the last time he …
Analysis and attribution of climate change in the upper atmosphere from 1950 to 2015 simulated by WACCM-X
16 November, 2020 by Ingrid Cnossen
Monitoring climatic changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere and understanding their causes is important for practical purposes. To support this effort and facilitate comparisons between observations and model results, a… Alpha transmitter signal reflection and triggered emissions
16 November, 2020 by Richard Horne
Russian Alpha radio navigation system (RSDN‐20) emits F1=11.9kHz signals into the magnetosphere which propagate as whistler‐mode waves. Observed by waveform continuous burst mode from EMFISIS on Van Allen Probes, a…Read more on Alpha transmitter signal reflection and triggered emissions
Probabilistic forecasts of storm sudden commencements from interplanetary shocks using machine learning
29 October, 2020 by Mervyn Freeman
In this study we investigate the ability of several different machine learning models to provide probabilistic predictions as to whether interplanetary shocks observed upstream of the Earth at L1 will…
A new approach to constructing models of electron diffusion by EMIC waves in the radiation belts
28 October, 2020 by Emma Woodfield, Johnathan Ross, Nigel Meredith, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves play an important role in relativistic electron losses in the radiation belts through diffusion via resonant wave‐particle interactions. We present a new approach for calculating…
Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Harmonic Distortion: High time Resolution Case Studies
12 October, 2020 by Mark Clilverd
High time resolution (1‐5 s) magnetometer, geomagnetically induced current (GIC), and mains harmonic distortion data from the Halfway Bush substation in Dunedin, New Zealand are analyzed. A recently developed technique…Evolution of the Geomagnetic Daily Variation at Tatuoca, Brazil, From 1957 to 2019: A Transition From Sq to EEJ
2 September, 2020 by Ingrid Cnossen
The magnetic equator in the Brazilian region has moved over 1,100 km northward since 1957, passing the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (TTB), in northern Brazil, around 2013. We recovered and processed… Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV electron fluxes from solar wind data and geomagnetic indices
1 August, 2020 by Richard Horne
The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium…Read more on Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV electron fluxes from solar wind data and geomagnetic indices
Multiscale observation of two polar cap arcs occurring on different magnetic field topologies
1 August, 2020 by Andrew Kavanagh, Jade Reidy, Jade Reidy
This paper presents observations of polar cap arc substructure down to scale sizes of meters and temporal resolution of milliseconds. Two case studies containing polar cap arcs occurring over Svalbard…Interhemispheric comparisons of large nighttime magnetic perturbation events relevant to GICs
1 August, 2020 by Michael Rose, Mervyn Freeman
Nearly all studies of impulsive magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with large magnetic field variability (dB/dt) that can produce dangerous geomagnetically‐induced currents (GICs) have used data from the northern hemisphere. Here…
Particle‐in‐cell experiments examine electron diffusion by whistler‐mode waves: 2. Quasi‐linear and nonlinear dynamics
7 July, 2020 by Johnathan Ross, Nigel Meredith, Sarah Glauert
Test particle codes indicate that electron dynamics due to interactions with low amplitude incoherent whistler mode‐waves can be adequately described by quasi‐linear theory. However there is significant evidence indicating that…
Spatial distributions of nitric oxide in the Antarctic winter‐time middle atmosphere during geomagnetic storms
6 July, 2020 by David Newnham, Mark Clilverd
Energetic electron precipitation leads to increased nitric oxide (NO) production in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. NO distributions in the winter time, high‐latitude Southern hemisphere atmosphere during geomagnetic storms are…
Global model of whistler mode chorus in the near-equatorial region (|MLAT| < 18 degrees)
16 June, 2020 by Nigel Meredith, Richard Horne
We extend our database of whistler mode chorus, based on data from seven satellites, by including ~3 years of data from RBSP‐A and RBSP‐B and an additional ~6 years of…
Mesospheric winds measured by MF radar with full correlation analysis: error properties and impacts on studies of wind variance
28 May, 2020 by Andrew Kavanagh, Maude Gibbins
The mesosphere is one of the most difficult parts of the atmosphere to sample; it is too high for balloon measurements and too low for in situ satellites. Consequently, there…
Particle‐in‐cell simulation of electron cyclotron harmonic waves driven by a loss cone distribution
16 May, 2020 by Richard Horne
Electron Cyclotron Harmonic (ECH) waves driven by a loss cone distribution are studied in this work by self‐consistent particle‐in‐cell simulations. These waves have been suggested to play an important role… Daedalus: a low-flying spacecraft for in situ exploration of the lower thermosphere-ionosphere
22 April, 2020 by Mark Clilverd
The Daedalus mission has been proposed to the European Space Agency (ESA) in response to the call for ideas for the Earth Observation program's 10th Earth Explorer. It was selected…
Examining Local Time Variations in the Gains and Losses of Open Magnetic Flux During Substorms
16 April, 2020 by Gareth Chisham
The open magnetic flux content of the magnetosphere varies during substorms as a result of dayside and nightside reconnection. The open flux can be calculated from the area of the… A multi-instrument approach to determining the source‐region extent of EEP-driving EMIC Waves
16 April, 2020 by Mark Clilverd
Recent years have seen debate regarding the ability of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves to drive EEP (energetic electron precipitation) into the Earth's atmosphere. Questions still remain regarding the energies…
AMPERE Polar Cap Boundaries
8 April, 2020 by Gareth Chisham
The high-latitude atmosphere is a dynamic region with processes that respond to forcing from the Sun, magnetosphere, neutral atmosphere, and ionosphere. Historically, the dominance of magnetosphere–ionosphere interactions has motivated upper…The Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre
1 April, 2020 by Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
Abstract The englacial stratigraphic architecture of internal reflection horizons (IRHs) as imaged by ice‐penetrating radar (IPR) across ice sheets reflects the cumulative effects of surface mass balance, basal melt,andice flow.IRHs,consideredisochrones,havetypicallybeentracedininterior,slow‐flowingregions.…Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065
10 March, 2020 by Ingrid Cnossen
The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by ∼3.5%, with the South Atlantic…
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