Space Weather and Atmosphere team
Our ambition
Large explosions on the Sun known as coronal mass ejections can spew out billions of tons of charged particles and magnetic field into space. When these disturbances reach the Earth they can trigger geomagnetic storms and increase particle radiation levels, causing disruption to power grids, satellites, aviation, and a host of other dependent businesses. These effects are known as Space Weather. Solar variations are also linked to changes in the atmosphere and surface temperature in the Polar Regions but how this occurs and how it affects weather and climate are open questions.
The goal of the Space Weather and Atmosphere team is to understand how solar variations affect the Earth’s space radiation environment, upper atmosphere and climate in the Polar Regions.
Our research provides the information needed by the Space Industry, UK Insurance and Government to mitigate the effects of severe Space Weather, and to assess the solar contribution to climate change in the Polar Regions.
Team priorities
Science
- Space radiation environment. To measure, simulate and predict changes in space radiation environment as they affect satellites, and to develop realistic scenarios of severe space weather events. These results are being used to assess which satellite orbits are most at risk and to develop better mitigation guidelines. They are also being used to provide real-time situation awareness for satellite operators.
- Atmospheric heating. To measure the heating and upward expansion of the polar atmosphere due to electrical currents set up during geomagnetic storms. This process, known as Joule heating, is the largest uncertainty in orbit prediction for satellites and space debris. The results will help provide better collision avoidance measures between satellites and space debris in low Earth orbit.
- Space-atmosphere coupling. To measure changes in atmospheric chemistry caused by particle precipitation and assess how they can affect the heating and cooling of the upper atmosphere. These results are being used in models to determine how they couple through the atmosphere to affect surface temperature and to determine their effect on polar climate.
- Solar effects on climate. To measure changes in the geoelectric field and understand how it can affect the atmosphere. Changes in the geoelectric field between the ground and the ionosphere have been linked to changes in atmospheric temperature, from the surface upwards.
Technology, innovation and training
- Using High Frequency over-the-horizon radars to understand coupling between the Sun, solar wind and the upper atmosphere, and the transport of charged particles in the radiation belts
- Using Medium Frequency radars to measure high altitude winds and atmospheric circulation in the polar vortex
- Developing state-of-the-art sub-millimetre radiometer technology to measure upper atmosphere winds and chemistry with Cambridge University
- Using an array of remote, low power magnetometers to measure changes in the geomagnetic field and electrical currents generated by Space Weather
- Using the BAS radiation belt model to simulate and predict the Earth’s radiation environment for satellites (a model equivalent to a general circulation model in atmospheric science)
- Exploiting data collected by constellations of satellites on charged particles, electromagnetic fields and atmospheric composition
- Training young scientists via PhD studentships with the Cambridge Earth System Science NERC Doctoral Training Partnership, the Open University, and via short term student vacation projects
Influencing and leading international programmes
- Continue setting scientific priorities as one of the PI Groups in the international SuperDARN radar network, and the AARDDVARK radio receiver consortium
- Continue leading the European Union SPACESTORM project
- Continue to play a leading role in the International Association of Geophysics and Aeronomy (IAGA), and the VLF/ELF Remote Sensing of the Ionosphere and Magnetosphere (VERSIM) scientific planning
Stakeholder engagement
- Continue providing expert advice to the Cabinet Office and UK Government departments through our membership of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group reporting to the Department of Business, Innovation and Science
- Continue our collaborations with the space industry including UK insurance, European satellite operators and satellite designers, through our leadership of the European SPACESTORM project
- Organising an annual end-user lunch at the European Space Weather Week jointly with the European Space Agency
- Continue representing the UK on the Council of the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar and supporting UK users of the facility
Public engagement
- Disseminating information by publishing our results in high-impact peer reviewed Journals, giving presentations at international conferences and issuing press releases when appropriate
- Organising and running scientific sessions at International conferences
Space Weather Observatory
Assessing Space Weather impacts
THeMES
The thermosphere is the uppermost layer of our atmosphere at the edge of space (85 to 1000 km altitude). Within this region orbit thousands of satellites worth billions of pounds …
Rad-Sat
Rad-Sat is a NERC Highlight Topic that brings together a consortium of scientists from 5 different UK research groups, stakeholders from the space industry and a network of international collaborators. …
SuperDARN
The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) has been operating as an international co-operative organisation for over 25 years, and has proved to be one of the most successful tools …
IMAGE Auroral Boundary Data
The objective of this project was to investigate whether magnetic reconnection in the space environment has a characteristic scale in space and time by characterising statistically the spatial and temporal …
The Global Electric Circuit
Weather and climate prediction are inevitably limited by incomplete knowledge of the Earth system and its external influences. One under-explored and consequently controversial area of research is the meteorological influence …
Low Power Magnetometer (LPM) Network
Access data from the Low Power Magnetometer (LPM) network
EISCAT Science Support
The EISCAT science support group is a collaboration between the British Antarctic Survey and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, funded via the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) EISCAT, the European …
Electron Acceleration in the Radiation Belts of Earth, Jupiter & Saturn
Radiation belts of very high energy electrons and protons can form around some planets – at the Earth these large donut shaped regions in space are often called the Van …
The effects of long-term changes in the Earth’s magnetic field
The Earth’s magnetic field plays a key role in the interaction between the solar wind and near-Earth space, which affects the upper atmosphere (~100-500 km altitude) in particular in the …
A High-Order Model of the Earth’s External and Induced Magnetic Field
For centuries people have used magnetic compasses to guide them on their way and explore new territories. This has led scientists to embark on their own journeys of discovery about …
Quantifying energetic particle precipitation into the atmosphere (QEPPA)
QEPPA is a joint project between the British Antarctic Survey and the Space physics group at Lancaster University. The objective of QEPPA is to work out the amount of charged …
SPACESTORM
SPACESTORM is a collaborative project to model space weather events and find ways to mitigate their effects on satellites. Over the last ten years the number of satellites on orbit …
Whole Atmosphere Climate Change
The near-Earth space environment is host to an increasing amount of advanced, satellite-based technology, used for both commercial and scientific purposes. To safeguard this technology and ensure that we can …
SWIGS
Certain ground based technologies, such as electrical power grids, pipelines and railways are susceptible to the effects of Space Weather. Changes in the way the magnetic fields of the …
BAS scientist awarded Gold Medal by Royal Astronomical Society
14 January, 2022
The Royal Astronomical Society has awarded the 2022 Gold Medal for Geophysics to Professor Richard B Horne for his outstanding contributions to our understanding of the physics underlying space weather. …
Grant to understand future impacts on atmospheric prediction
13 January, 2022
A new project to improve scientists understanding of the impact of space weather and climate change on the atmosphere starts this month (January 2022). A team from British Antarctic Survey, …
Antarctica experiences rare total solar eclipse
3 December, 2021
A rare total solar eclipse in Antarctica this weekend (Saturday 4 December) is giving researchers a unique opportunity to learn more about how solar eclipses affect space weather. The next …
Mystery of what causes Jupiter’s X-ray auroras is solved
12 July, 2021
The 40-year-old mystery of what causes Jupiter’s X-ray auroras has been solved. For the first time, scientists have seen the entire mechanism at work – and it could be a …
‘Sounds of space’ feature in album Celestial Incantations
21 June, 2021
Celestial Incantations – New album release from Sounds of Space Project New album Celestial Incantations is released today by the international Sounds of Space Project, comprising of Dr Nigel Meredith …
BAS staff recognised with Royal Society Fellowships
6 May, 2021
We are delighted to announce that today (6 May 2021) Professor Dame Jane Francis, Director of British Antarctic Survey, and Professor Richard Horne, Head of Space Weather and Atmosphere team, …
Medal win for space weather scientist
13 November, 2020
The award recognises Professor Horne’s unique ability to combine basic and applied research to develop useful space weather products.
Space weather monitoring receives funding boost
27 June, 2020
Space weather research at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) receives a funding boost of around £2M today (Saturday 27 June) from the SWIMMR (Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) programme. …
New album Aurora Musicalis brings the ‘sounds of space’ to the public
6 May, 2020
A new album with the unique ‘sounds of space’ recorded from Antarctica is released free today (6 May 2020). Aurora Musicalis contains the natural radio ‘sounds’ of our planet, recorded …
Appleton Prize awarded to Professor Richard Horne
4 March, 2020
British Antarctic Survey is pleased to announce the Appleton Prize 2020 has been awarded to Professor Richard Horne, Head of the Space Weather and Atmosphere science team at British Antarctic …
Space weather ‘super storms’ occurred every 25 years
29 January, 2020
A ‘great’ space weather super-storm large enough to cause significant disruption to our electronic and networked systems occurred on average once in every 25 years. The results are published today …
Space weather study wins accolade
4 November, 2019
A team of international researchers, including Professor Richard Horne from British Antarctic Survey, has been awarded best research study from the journal Risk Analysis for 2019. The study, led by …
Funding boost for space weather research
24 September, 2019
Space weather research gets a boost this week with a £20m fund announced by the UK Prime Minister. Space weather, such as flares or winds from the Sun’s surface or …
Space weather causes radiation damage to satellites
1 July, 2019
The use of electric propulsion for raising satellites into geostationary orbit can result in significant solar cell degradation according to a new study. The extended journey results in greater exposure …
Scientist awarded prestigious award
15 January, 2019
British Antarctic Survey space weather scientist, Dr Mark Clilverd, has been awarded a prestigious award from the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) in their 2019 Awards. The award recognises Mark as …
‘Sounds of Space’ from Antarctica feature in space simulation game
11 December, 2018
Amazing, natural, ‘sounds of space’, have been incorporated into the new exploration gameplay in Elite Dangerous
A new way to create Saturn’s radiation belts
29 November, 2018
A team of international scientists from BAS, University of Iowa and GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has discovered a new method to explain how radiation belts are formed around …
Satellites more at risk from fast solar wind than a major space storm
3 September, 2018
Satellites are more likely to be at risk from high-speed solar wind than a major geomagnetic storm according to a new UK-US study published this week in the Journal Space …
Million fold increase in the power of waves near Jupiter’s moon Ganymede
8 August, 2018
Understanding of how Jupiter’s magnetic field interacts with its moons and with intense particle radiation.
Most advanced space weather radar to be built in Arctic
23 August, 2017
The most advanced space weather radar in the world is to be built in the Arctic by an international partnership including the UK, thanks to new investment, including in the …
New study reveals potential cost of solar storms
18 January, 2017
The daily U.S. economic cost from solar storm-induced electricity blackouts could total more than $40 billion, with more than half the loss occurring outside the blackout zone, says new study. …
Royal Astronomical Society honours BAS scientist
13 January, 2017
Dr Mervyn Freeman, Senior Space Weather Researcher at British Antarctic Survey, has been awarded the prestigious Chapman Medal in Geophysics by the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS). The medal recognises his …
FEATURED PAPER: Energetic Electron Hazard
13 June, 2016
Energetic electrons are an important space weather hazard. In this paper we apply extreme value analysis to 16 years of operational satellite data from the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellites …
PRESS RELEASE: New season – ambitious science
23 November, 2015
New season tackles ambitious science and logistical challenges The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) 2015/16 field season is underway with dozens of scientists and support staff – together with planes and tonnes …
NEWS STORY: Space weather features at free event
4 June, 2015
FREE event: ‘Discover Antarctica’ at British Geological Survey Open Day, Saturday 27 June, 10am-4pm Staff from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) will showcase its work at this year’s British Geological Survey …
NEWS STORY: NERC placement offered
6 May, 2015
NERC Research Experience Placement 2015 A Research Experience Placement supported by EnvEast DTP and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) is available at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) this …
NEWS STORY: Lessons from electrons
14 October, 2014
Study of electrons in space could help weather forecasting Researchers have discovered a formerly undetected impact of space weather on the polar atmosphere, which may explain some previously unexplained variations …
NEWS STORY: Changes in upper atmosphere
23 May, 2014
Earth’s magnetic field is important for climate change at high altitudes New research, published this week, has provided scientists with greater insight into the climatic changes happening in the upper …
NEWS STORY: Improving space weather forecasting
9 June, 2013
Space weather forecasting system used by satellite operators Weather forecasting is a tricky enough job on Earth, but doing it for the outer atmosphere and beyond is even more problematic. …
NEWS STORY: BAS involved in NASA mission
30 August, 2012
British Antarctic Survey scientists involved in NASA ‘space weather’ mission WASHINGTON — NASA’s Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP), the first twin-spacecraft mission designed to explore the Earth’s radiation belts, launched …
PRESS RELEASE: Space weather forecasting
29 March, 2011
Major EU-funded space weather initiative launched and managed in UK A major EU-funded initiative to improve ‘space weather’ forecasting will hold its inaugural meeting in the UK on Tuesday 29 …
PRESS RELEASE: New research sheds light on Aurora
20 October, 2010
New space research settles years of scientific debate New space research published this week (Thursday 21 October) in the journal Nature, has settled decades of scientific debate. Researchers from the …
ANTARCTIC BLOG: BBC arrives at Halley #3
5 February, 2016 by Athena Dinar
“I feel like I’m home” says BBC weather forecaster Peter Gibbs as he sets foot on the Brunt Ice Shelf. It’s an emotional moment for him; the last time he …
RAS Specialist Discussion Meeting report
24 January, 2022 by Rob Shore
Report on the RAS Specialist Discussion Meeting ‘System-scale observations and modelling of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (SW-M-I-T) coupling’.Music of the spheres
24 January, 2022 by Amanda Wynne, Nigel Meredith
The Sounds of Space Project harvests found sounds and signals from Earth and way beyond, and gathers them into evocative sonic compositions.Distributions of Birkeland current density observed by AMPERE are heavy‐tailed or long‐tailed
23 January, 2022 by Gareth Chisham, Mervyn Freeman
We analyze probability distributions of Birkeland current densities measured by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We find that the distributions are leptokurtic rather than normal and…Examination of radiation belt dynamics during substorm clusters: Activity drivers and dependencies of trapped flux enhancements
6 January, 2022 by Mark Clilverd
Dynamical variations of radiation belt trapped electron fluxes are examined to better understand the variability of enhancements linked to substorm clusters. Analysis is undertaken using the Substorm Onsets and Phases…HEPPA III intercomparison experiment on electron precipitation impacts, part I: Estimated ionization rates during a geomagnetic active period in April 2010
1 January, 2022 by Mark Clilverd
Precipitating auroral and radiation belt electrons are considered an important part of the natural forcing of the climate system. Recent studies suggest that this forcing is underestimated in current chemistry-climate…Conjugate observation of magnetospheric chorus propagating to the ionosphere by ducting
16 December, 2021 by Richard Horne
Whistler-mode chorus waves are critical for driving resonant scattering and loss of radiation belt relativistic electrons into the atmosphere. The resonant energies of electrons scattered by chorus waves increase at…Read more on Conjugate observation of magnetospheric chorus propagating to the ionosphere by ducting
The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF)
14 December, 2021 by Peter Kirsch, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
With new satellite constellations being launched into low Earth orbit, the growing use of medium Earth orbit for radio-navigation and timing signals, slot region orbits for telecommunications and the introduction…Read more on The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF)
Vision transformers and techniques for improving solar wind speed forecasts using solar EUV images
13 December, 2021 by Nigel Meredith
Extreme-ultraviolet images taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly make it possible to use deep vision techniques in the prediction of solar wind speed - a difficult, high-impact, and unsolved problem.…Modelling inner proton belt variability at energies 1 to 10MeV using BAS‐PRO
12 December, 2021 by Alexander Lozinski, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
Geomagnetically trapped protons forming Earth’s proton radiation belt pose a hazard to orbiting spacecraft. In particular, solar cell degradation is caused by non-ionising collisions with protons at energies of several…Read more on Modelling inner proton belt variability at energies 1 to 10MeV using BAS‐PRO
On the variability of EMIC waves and the consequences for the relativistic electron radiation belt population
1 December, 2021 by Johnathan Ross, Nigel Meredith, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
The interactions between electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves and relativistic electrons are influential in diffusing radiation belt electrons into the loss code from which the electrons are lost into the…Evaluation of SaRIF high-energy electron reconstructions and forecasts
1 December, 2021 by Peter Kirsch, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
Increasing numbers of satellites are orbiting through the Earth's radiation belts, and the range of orbits being commonly used is also growing. As a result, there is an increasing need…Read more on Evaluation of SaRIF high-energy electron reconstructions and forecasts
Fully distributed verifiable random functions and their application to decentralised random beacons
13 November, 2021 by Jenny Wong
We provide a systematic analysis of two related multiparty protocols, namely (Non-Interactive Fully) Distributed Verifiable Random Functions (DVRFs) and Decentralised Random Beacons (DRBs), including their syntax and definition of robustness…Solar flare X‐ray impacts on long subionospheric VLF paths
11 November, 2021 by Mark Clilverd
Solar flares increase the electron number concentration in the day-time ionosphere, potentially affecting radiowave propagation over several frequency ranges. In this study, we use ionospheric observations to determine both peak…Read more on Solar flare X‐ray impacts on long subionospheric VLF paths
A statistical model of vorticity in the polar ionosphere and implications for extreme values
1 November, 2021 by Gareth Chisham, Mervyn Freeman
Measurements of vorticity in the Earth’s ionosphere enable the characterisation of turbulent structure in the ionospheric plasma flow and how it varies spatially in relation to large-scale magnetic field-aligned current…The in-situ exploration of Jupiter’s radiation belts
30 October, 2021 by Emma Woodfield
Jupiter has the most complex and energetic radiation belts in our Solar System and one of the most challenging space environments to measure and characterize in-depth. Their hazardous environment is…Read more on The in-situ exploration of Jupiter’s radiation belts
Two whistler-mode waves modulation by background-level density irregularity during the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm
5 October, 2021 by Richard Horne
The plasmasphere is a vast torus shape region of the inner magnetosphere, filled with dense (∼1−106#/cm−3) and cold (less than 10eV) ions and electrons. The outer boundary of the plasmasphere,…Electron microbursts induced by nonducted chorus waves
4 October, 2021 by Richard Horne
Microbursts, short-lived but intense electron precipitation observed by low-Earth-orbiting satellites, may contribute significantly to the losses of energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Their origin is likely due to…Read more on Electron microbursts induced by nonducted chorus waves
The future of UK Antarctic science: Strategic priorities, essential needs and opportunities for international leadership
1 October, 2021 by Anna Jones, Kevin Hughes, Michael Meredith, Mervyn Freeman, Nadine Johnston, Peter Convey
• The Antarctic region has been experiencing rapid change in recent decades due to human induced factors. Most notably, climate heating is causing ice sheet melting, leading to sea level… Cross-L* coherence of the outer radiation belt during 2 storms and the role of the plasmapause
1 October, 2021 by Mark Clilverd, Nigel Meredith, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
The high energy electron population in Earth’s outer radiation belt is extremely variable, changing by multiple orders of magnitude on timescales that vary from under an hour to several weeks.… Drift orbit bifurcations and cross-field transport in the outer radiation belt: Global MHD and integrated test-particle simulations
30 September, 2021 by Nigel Meredith, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert
Energetic particle fluxes in the outer magnetosphere present a significant challenge to modeling efforts as they can vary by orders of magnitude in response to solar wind driving conditions. In…
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