Profile

I am an Independent Research Fellow within the Space Weather and Atmosphere team at BAS. My research focuses on the climate of the upper atmosphere and interactions between the lower and upper atmosphere using numerical models. Alongside my own research, I offer modelling support to projects led by others as well as expertise on upper atmosphere climate. I also provide stakeholders in the space industry with information on long-term changes in the upper atmosphere and impacts on space debris.

Key areas of expertise

• Atmospheric modelling, in particular with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – eXtended (WACCM-X)
• Climate change in the middle and upper atmosphere
• North-South asymmetries in the polar atmosphere

Biography

In 2005 I received a Master of Science degree from Utrecht University (The Netherlands) in the field of Earth Sciences, with a specialization in geophysics. As part of this, I did an internship at the European Space Agency, studying the Sun and its effects on the Earth’s atmosphere as it would have been around the orgin of life, 3.5 billion years ago. This ignited my interest in solar-terrestrial physics as well as a love for research in general, especially in an international setting. It set me on the path of a PhD at the University of Leicester (Leicester, UK; 2006-2008), where I studied climate change in the upper atmosphere (~90-500 km altitude) and in particular the the effects of changes in the Earth’s magnetic field on the ionosphere, the charged portion of the upper atmosphere. After a first post-doctoral position at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS; Cambridge, UK; 2009-2010) studying troposphere-stratosphere coupling, I continued to study the role of the Earth’s magnetic field in the climate of the upper atmosphere in further research posts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; Boulder, USA; 2011-2012), BAS (2013-2015) and the German Center for Geosciences (Potsdam, Germany; 2016). This has included its role in long-term (climatic) changes as well as systematic asymmetries between the Northern and Southern polar regions. I have been an Independent Research Fellow (IRF) at BAS since Dec 2018, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). My fellowship focuses on the effects of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere (0-90 km altitude) on the upper atmosphere (90-500 km altitude), using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension (WACCM-X).

Research interests

• Effects of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere (0-90 km altitude) on the upper atmosphere (90-500 km altitude)
• Vertical atmospheric coupling processes
• North-South asymmetries in the polar atmosphere
• Effects of changes in the Earth’s main magnetic field on the atmosphere and magnetosphere
• Long-term (multi-decadal) changes and trends in the upper atmosphere (ionosphere and thermosphere)
• Impact of climate change in the upper atmosphere on space debris

Collaborations

• I work with Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton on the impacts of upper atmosphere climate change on the future evolution of the space debris population
• I am co-leader of an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team on “Impacts of climate change on the middle and upper atmosphere and atmospheric drag of space objects” . For further information see our team website: https://teams.issibern.ch/impactsofclimatechange/
• I am a member of an ISSI team on “Understanding Interhemispheric Asymmetry in MIT Coupling”. For further information see our team website: https://teams.issibern.ch/asymmetryinmitcoupling/
• I also work collaboratively with the wider scientific community studying long-term trends in the middle and upper atmosphere. A recent review I led is available here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724010123

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2026

Lastovicka, Jan. Qian, Liying. Añel, Juan A. Brown, Matthew K. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Elias, Ana G. Jacobi, Christoph. Li, Tao. Sofieva, Viktoria. (2026) Scenario of global climate change in the Stratosphere-Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere system.

2025

Peña-Asensio, Eloy. Vida, Denis. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Ferrer, Esteban. (2025) Century-scale effect of climate change on meteorite falls.

Añel, Juan A. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Antuña‐Marrero, Juan Carlos. Beig, Gufran. Brown, Matthew K. Doornbos, Eelco. Osprey, Scott. Mutschler, Shaylah Maria. Pérez Souto, Celia. Šácha, Petr. Sofieva, Viktoria. de la Torre, Laura. Zhang, Shun‐Rong. Mlynczak, Martin G. (2025) The Need for Better Monitoring of Climate Change in the Middle and Upper Atmosphere.

2024

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Emmert, John T. Garcia, Rolando R. Elias, Ana G. Mlynczak, Martin G. Zhang, Shun-Rong. (2024) A review of global long-term changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere: a starting point for inclusion in (semi-)empirical models.

Brown, M.K. Lewis, H.G. Kavanagh, A.J. ORCID record for Kavanagh, A.J.. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Elvidge, S. (2024) Future Climate Change in the Thermosphere Under Varying Solar Activity Conditions.

2023

Brown, M.K. Elvidge, S. Themens, D.R. Lewis, H.G. Kavanagh, A.J. ORCID record for Kavanagh, A.J.. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2023) Days to Decades: Forecasting Neutral Densities in Low Earth Orbit.

Coyle, S.E. Hartinger, M.D. Clauer, C.R. Baker, J.B.H. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Freeman, M.P. ORCID record for Freeman, M.P.. Weygand, J.M. (2023) The 2021 Antarctic Total Eclipse: Ground Magnetometer and GNSS Wave Observations from the 40 Degree Magnetic Meridian.

Zhang, Shun-Rong. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Laštovička, Jan. Elias, Ana G. Yue, Xinan. Jacobi, Christoph. Yue, Jia. Wang, Wenbin. Qian, Liyang. Goncharenko, Larisa. (2023) Long-term geospace climate monitoring.

2022

Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2022) A realistic projection of climate change in the upper atmosphere into the 21st century.

Shutler, Jamie D. Yan, Xiaoyu. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Schulz, Leonard. Watson, Andrew J. Glaßmeier, Karl-Heinz. Hawkins, Naomi. Nasu, Hitoshi. (2022) Atmospheric impacts of the space industry require oversight [Comment].

2021

Brown, M.K. Lewis, H.G. Kavanagh, A.J. ORCID record for Kavanagh, A.J.. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2021) Climate change in space: Thermospheric density reductions in LEO and the impact on the debris environment.

Brown, M.K. Lewis, H.G. Kavanagh, A.J. ORCID record for Kavanagh, A.J.. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2021) Future decreases in thermospheric neutral density in low Earth orbit due to carbon dioxide emissions.

2020

Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2020) Analysis and attribution of climate change in the upper atmosphere from 1950 to 2015 simulated by WACCM-X.

Soares, Gabriel B. Yamazaki, Yosuke. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Matzka, Jürgen. Pinheiro, Katia. Morschhauser, Achim. Alken, Patrick. Stolle, Claudia. (2020) Evolution of the geomagnetic daily variation at Tatuoca, Brazil, from 1957 to 2019: a transition from Sq to EEJ.

Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Maute, A. (2020) Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065.

2019

Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Ridley, A.J. Goncharenko, L.P. Harding, B.J. (2019) The response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to the August 21, 2017 solar eclipse.

Aryal, Saurav. Geddes, George. Finn, Susanna C. Mrak, Sebastijan. Galkin, Ivan. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Cook, Timothy. Chakrabarti, Supriya. (2019) Multi-spectral and multi-instrument observation of TIDs following the Total Solar Eclipse of August 21, 2017.

2018

Perlongo, N.J. Ridley, A.J. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. (2018) A year long comparison of GPS TEC and global ionosphere-thermosphere models.

2016

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. (2016) The impact of century-scale changes in the core magnetic field on external magnetic field contributions.

Laundal, K.M. Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Milan, S.E. Haaland, S.E. Coxon, J. Pedatella, N.M. Forster, M. Reistad, J.P. (2016) North-South asymmetries in Earth’s magnetic field.

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Liu, Hanli. Lu, Hua ORCID record for Lu, Hua. (2016) The whole-atmosphere response to changes in the Earth’s magnetic field from 1900 to 2000: an example of “top-down” vertical coupling.

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Forster, Matthias. (2016) North-South asymmetries in the polar thermosphere-ionosphere system: solar cycle and seasonal influences.

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Laštovička, Jan. Emmert, John T. (2016) Introduction to special issue on “Long-term changes and trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere”.

2015

Emmert, John. T. Marsh, Daniel R. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. (2015) Investigating Climate Change from the Stratosphere to Space.

2014

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Franzke, Christian. (2014) The role of the Sun in long-term change in the F2 peak ionosphere: new insights from EEMD and numerical modelling.

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. (2014) The importance of geomagnetic field changes versus rising CO2 levels for long-term change in the upper atmosphere.

2013

Forster, Matthias. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. (2013) Upper atmosphere differences between the high-latitude Northern and Southern Hemisphere: the role of magnetic field asymmetry.

de Haro Barbas, Blas F. Elias, Ana G. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Zossi de Artigas, Marta. (2013) Long-term changes in solar quiet (Sq) geomagnetic variations related to Earth’s magnetic field secular variation.

2012

Lu, Hua ORCID record for Lu, Hua. Pancheva, Dora. Mukhtarov, Plamen. Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. (2012) QBO modulation of traveling planetary waves during northern winter.

2011

Cnossen, Ingrid ORCID record for Cnossen, Ingrid. Lu, Hua ORCID record for Lu, Hua. (2011) The vertical connection of the quasi-biennial oscillation- modulated 11 year solar cycle signature in geopotential height and planetary waves during Northern Hemisphere early winter.

Cnossen, I. ORCID record for Cnossen, I.. Lu, H. ORCID record for Lu, H.. Bell, C.J. Gray, L.J. Joshi, M.M. (2011) Solar signal propagation: The role of gravity waves and stratospheric sudden warmings.

• Cnossen, I. (2015). Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere simulations for March equinox, June solstice and December solstice for solar maximum and minimum conditions (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/00830

18. Whole Atmosphere Climate Change

    Whole Atmosphere Climate Change project investigated how human-driven climate change in the lower atmosphere affects upper atmosphere conditions up to 500 km altitude.

    Read more of: Whole Atmosphere Climate Change

    

25. The effects of long-term changes in the Earth’s magnetic field

    The effects of long-term changes in the Earths magnetic field on the atmosphere understanding the past predicting the future.

    Read more of: The effects of long-term changes in the Earth’s magnetic field

    

28. Decoding Ionospheric Dynamics

    DRIIVE researches how polar ionosphere changes affect satellite orbits, communications, and space weather forecasts.

    Read more of: Decoding Ionospheric Dynamics

    

NERC Independent Research Fellowship ““Impacts of Climate Change in the Troposphere, Stratosphere, and Mesosphere on the Thermosphere and Ionosphere”

1. Climate change to increase lifetime of space pollution

   Satellites face greater chances of collision with space debris as a result of reduced density in the upper atmosphere. Increasing levels of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere will result in […]

   Read more of: Climate change to increase lifetime of space pollution

   

2. NEWS STORY: Changes in upper atmosphere

   Earth’s magnetic field is important for climate change at high altitudes New research, published this week, has provided scientists with greater insight into the climatic changes happening in the upper […]

   Read more of: NEWS STORY: Changes in upper atmosphere

   

• My work influenced a new ISO standard (#27852) on “Space systems – Estimation of orbit lifetimes” (published in 2024). This now includes information on the long-term decline in upper atmosphere density due to CO₂-induced cooling and contraction, and the impact this has on orbital lifetime estimates. The new guidelines also include a straightforward methodology to enable stakeholders in the satellite industry to account for this effect easily, developed by Matthew Brown, a former PhD student co-supervised by Andrew Kavanagh and myself at BAS. 
• Recognition for the following paper, which was in the top 10% of papers downloaded (among work published in an issue between 1 January 2022 – 31 December 2022) during its first 12 months of publication in Geophysical Research Letters: Cnossen, I. (2022), A realistic projection of climate change in the upper atmosphere into the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100693, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100693.
• Recognition for the following paper, which was  one of the most downloaded (among work published in an issue between 1 January 2021 – 31 December 2021) during its first 12 months of publication in JGR Atmospheres: Brown, M.K., H.G. Lewis, A.J. Kavanagh, and I. Cnossen (2021), Future decreases in thermospheric neutral density in low Earth orbit due to carbon dioxide emissions, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034589, doi: 10.1029/2021JD034589.

• Member, International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee 20, Subcommittee 14, Working Group 4 – Space environment (natural and artificial)
• Member, British Standards Institution (BSI) ACE/68 Space Operation committee