Radbelt-DA

Radiation Belt Data Assimilation (Radbelt-DA)

Start date
1 November, 2022
End date
1 February, 2026

The goal of the Radbelt-DA project is to apply data assimilation techniques used in weather forecasting to the BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM).  This will enable much better reconstructions of the radiation belts, and better forecasting skill.  It will provide satellite operators with better information to assess whether a satellite outage is due to a space weather event.

Background

The British Antarctic Survey has developed a computer model to forecast radiation levels in the Earth’s radiation belts. These are regions encircling the Earth where high energy charged particles are trapped by the Earth’s external magnetic field.  They extend out beyond geostationary orbit and pose a risk of radiation damage to satellites.

During periods of enhanced solar activity, the radiation belts are often enhanced which can lead to satellite service outage, and in unusual cases, satellite loss.  The BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM) is used to both reconstruct the radiation belts for past events and to predict radiation levels up to 1 day ahead.  The forecasts are available via the European Space Agency and are used by satellite operators, designers and insurance underwriters.

The Radbelt-DA project is part of a wider collaboration between the British Antarctic Survey, the University of Birmingham and the Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, USA.

The project is funded by the Defence Science and Technology Lab (DST).

The goal of the Radbelt-DA project is to apply data assimilation techniques used in weather forecasting to the BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM).  This will enable much better reconstructions of the radiation belts, and better forecasting skill.  It will provide satellite operators a better information to decide if a satellite outage is due to a space weather event.

To achieve this goal, we have set three objectives:

  1. To incorporate data assimilation into the BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM)
  2. To test the model by reconstructing the radiation belts for different types of storms and space weather events
  3. To incorporate data assimilation into the forecast version of BAS-RBM and assess the improvement in forecasting skill

The work includes analysis of satellite data and using the BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM) to simulate events on a global scale.