PRESS RELEASE: Space weather forecasting
29 March, 2011
Major EU-funded space weather initiative launched and managed in UK A major EU-funded initiative to improve ‘space weather’ forecasting will hold its inaugural meeting in the UK on Tuesday 29 …
SPACESTORM
SPACESTORM
- Start date
- 1 April, 2014
- End date
- 31 March, 2017
SPACESTORM is a collaborative project to model space weather events and find ways to mitigate their effects on satellites.
Over the last ten years the number of satellites on orbit has grown significantly to more than a thousand. We also depend on satellites more than ever for applications such as TV, internet, mobile phones, navigation, banking and finance. All these satellites must be designed to withstand the harsh radiation in space for up to fifteen years or more. Space weather events can increase radiation levels by five orders of magnitude in the Earth’s radiation belts and trigger bursts of high energy particles which can disrupt satellite operations and sometimes cause a complete satellite loss. Europe is investing heavily in space with the Galileo radio-navigation system and developing a competitive space industry.
It is therefore important that we assess and mitigate the impact of space weather, particularly extreme events.
This project brings together scientists and engineers from across Europe with commercial stakeholders to assess the impact of space weather and develop mitigation strategies. We will undertake studies of past space weather events using state-of-the-art computer models and data analysis techniques. The goal and objectives of this project are sufficiently challenging and important that no one member of the consortium could achieve it on their own. SPACESTORM brings together experts with an international reputation on magnetic field and seed electron dynamics (Finnish Meteorological Institute), data analysis and service provision (D.H. Consultancy), satellite engineering and instrument development (Surrey Space Centre) and laboratory experiments as well as modelling and data (ONERA, French Aerospace Lab). To this consortium, BAS contributes its expertise in radiation belt modelling and wave-particle interactions.
Forecasting
The SPACESTORM project is developing a new set of web displays specifically for satellite operators and designers.
A new system of space weather forecasting was set up and implemented in the SPACECAST project, which was funded by the EU under FP7. The new SPACESTORM project has made a commitment to continue three of these forecasts:
- Forecast of the high energy electrons, 300 keV to >2 MeV
- A ‘Nowcast’ of the low energy electrons, 40 to 150 keV
- Radiation dose rates due to energetic protons.
The models used to create these forecasts are being developed further in the SPACESTORM project. Four major improvements to the forecasting models have already been implemented in year 1 of the SPACESTORM project:
- Improved model of the source of electron population for the low energy electron ‘Nowcast’.
- Improved initial conditions for the high energy electron forecasts.
- New model of chorus wave-particle interactions for the high energy electrons.
- Inclusion of losses due to magnetopause shadowing in the high energy electron forecasts.
SPACESTORM is conducting extensive modelling of space weather events for post event analysis, and carrying out research to improve and verify the models against satellite data.
The project will:
- Generate a thirty year reconstructed data set for MEO (Medium Earth Orbit) and determine the space radiation environment for a 1 in 100 year event, and model extreme event scenarios.
- Increase knowledge on key physical processes underpinning radiation belt dynamics and improve the representation of physical processes in numerical models and reduce uncertainty.
- Use data, models, and plasma theory to define the radiation environment for extreme space weather events, and conduct simulations and experiments to determine the impact on systems and components.
- Assess the risk and develop new mitigation guidelines.
- Perform experiments on new materials and techniques to reduce surface charging on solar arrays, and develop better physical models to forecast the radiation belts to provide warnings and alerts.
- Develop a stakeholder community and deliver the results in a form accessible to the public.
The project will deliver data, mitigation guidelines and experimental results that will continue long after the project and which will improve the design of future satellites.
The new SPACESTORM project has made a commitment to continue three of the forecasts set up in the SPACECAST project:
- Forecast of the high energy electrons, 300 keV to >2 MeV
- A ‘Nowcast’ of the low energy electrons, 40 to 150 keV
- Radiation dose rates due to energetic protons.
These forecasts, and many additional scientific data displays to aid interpretation, can be found here.
Uncertainty
It must be remembered that space weather forecasting is still at an early stage and there can be a lot of uncertainty. To reduce uncertainty we require more advanced information on the Sun and interplanetary magnetic fields and how they vary, and more measurements of waves and charged particles inside the geometric field. At present, our models take data from the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft (and in the future DSCOVR – Deep Space Climate Observatory) which means they can only give an accurate forecast up to one hour ahead. Beyond that, most forecasting centres use assumptions about persistence and recurrence of variations in the space environment to make their forecasts which leads to increasing uncertainty
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Halley VI Research Station
Halley VI Research Station, Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Halley radars
Studying winds, waves, and tides in the upper atmosphere across the polar regions.