Influence of oceanographic variability on recruitment in the Illex argentinus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) fishery in the South Atlantic
The fishery for Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic is subject to large inter-annual
variability in recruitment strength. In this paper we attempt to build a predictive model using sea surface
temperature (SST) to examine links between recruitment to the Falkland Islands fishery and environmental
variability during the juvenile and adult life history stages. SST data from the National center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were found to be comparable with near-surface data derived
from in situ expendable bathy-thermograph (XBT) profiles in the southern Patagonian shelf. Variation
in SST during the early life stages appears to be important in determining recruitment of I. argentin us.
SST in the hatching grounds of the northern Patagonian shelf during the period of hatching (particularly
June and July) was negatively correlated with catches in the fishery in the following season. SST
anomaly data from positions in the Pacific and Southwest Atlantic were used to examine teleconnections
between these areas. Links were seen at a lag of 2 yr between the Pacific and southern Patagonian
shelf, and at about 5 yr between the Pacific and northern Patagonian shelf. This is consistent with
SST anomalies associated with El Niilo in the Pacific propagating around the globe via the Antarctic
Circumpolar Wave (ACW). Predicting cold events via teleconnections between SST anomalies in the
Pacific and Atlantic would appear to have the potential to predict the recruitment strength of I. argentinus
in the Southwest Atlantic.
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