Decadal variability in the impact of atmospheric circulation patterns on the winter climate of northern Russia
The Arctic continues to warm at a much faster rate than the global average. One process contributing to ‘Arctic amplification’ involves changes in low-frequency macro-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their consequent influence on regional climate. Here, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine decadal changes in the impact of seven such patterns on winter near-surface temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) in northern Russia and calculate the temporal consistency of any statistically significant relationships. We demonstrate that the 40-year climatology hides considerable decadal variability in the spatial extent of such circulation pattern-climate relationships across the region, with few areas where their temporal consistency exceeds 60%. This is primarily a response to the pronounced decadal expansion/contraction and/or mobility of the circulation patterns’ centers of action. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant pattern (having the highest temporal consistency) affecting SAT west of the Urals. Further east, the Scandinavian (SCA), Polar/Eurasia (POL) and West Pacific patterns are successively the dominant pattern influencing SAT across the West Siberian Plains, Central Siberian Plateau and mountains of Far East Siberia, respectively. From west to east, the SCA, POL and Pacific North American patterns exert the most consistent decadal influence on PPN. The only temporally invariant significant decadal relationships occur between the NAO and SAT and the SCA and PPN in small areas of the North European Plain.
Details
Publication status:
Published Online
Author(s):
Authors: Marshall, Gareth J. ORCID record for Gareth J. Marshall
This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish.AcceptRead more
Privacy & Cookies Policy
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.