Real Projections

Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change

Start date
1 September, 2016
End date
31 July, 2023

Predicting how the climate will change as human activities lead to emission of more greenhouse gases is a global scientific challenge for climate scientists. We use models of the climate to make predictions, but predictions from these models are imperfect. We are therefore faced by the huge challenge of extracting robust information from climate models about how real-world climate will change in the future under specified scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists at BAS are focussing on understanding the processes driving sea ice variability and change, and combining this information with novel analysis methods to investigate the likely future evolution of Antarctic sea ice area.


Bracegirdle, T. J., Hyder, P., & Holmes, C. R. (2018). CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift. Journal of Climate, 31, 195–211. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0320.1
Holmes, C. R., Holland, P. R., & Bracegirdle, T. J. (2019). Compensating Biases and a Noteworthy Success in the CMIP5 Representation of Antarctic Sea Ice Processes. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(8), 4299-4307. doi:10.1029/2018gl081796
Roach, L. A., Dorr, J., Holmes, C. R., Massonnet, F., Blockley, E. W., Rackow, T., et al. (2020). Antarctic Sea Ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, in press. doi:10.1029/2019GL086729
Holmes, C. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., & Holland, P. R. (2022). Antarctic Sea Ice Projections Constrained by Historical Ice Cover and Future Global Temperature Change. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(10). doi:10.1029/2021gl097413

Mat Collins (University of Exeter)