Polar Climate Scientist
My research at BAS seeks to understand how the current set of climate models used in climate change assessments simulates sea ice, and how this affects our future projections of climate change both within the polar regions and remotely. I am analysing output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) used in the most recent IPCC asssessment (2013) to evaluate how different models simulate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes important to the evolution of sea ice concentration. I work closely with BAS colleagues in both the Polar Oceans team and Atmosphere, Ice and Climate teams. This research is funded under the NERC large grant “Real Projections – Robust projections of real world climate change” led by Mat Collins at the University of Exeter.
I completed an undergraduate degree in Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, followed by an MSc in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate at the University of Reading. With a particular interest in atmospheric dynamics, I pursued a PhD at the University of Reading Department of Meteorology. My thesis investigated the possible impacts of changes in sea ice cover on the midlatitude atmosphere, through idealised modelling experiments with imposed sea ice. I then undertook a short postdoc at the University of Edinburgh looking at impacts of climate change on Scotland in sectors such as building energy demand, before moving to the British Antarctic Survey to pursue research into the coupled climate system of the polar regions.
Publications from NERC Open Research Archive
Turner, John ORCID record for John Turner, Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Caroline Holmes, Caton Harrison, Thomas ORCID record for Thomas Caton Harrison, Phillips, Tony ORCID record for Tony Phillips, Jena, Babula, Reeves-Francois, Tylei, Fogt, Ryan, Thomas, Elizabeth R. ORCID record for Elizabeth R. Thomas, Bajish, C.C.. (2022) Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. 11 pp. 10.1029/2022GL098904
Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for C.R. Holmes, Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID record for T.J. Bracegirdle, Holland, P.R. ORCID record for P.R. Holland. (2022) Antarctic sea ice projections constrained by historical ice cover and future global temperature change. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. 10 pp. 10.1029/2021GL097413
Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID record for T.J. Bracegirdle, Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for C.R. Holmes, Hosking, J.S. ORCID record for J.S. Hosking, Marshall, G.J. ORCID record for G.J. Marshall, Osman, M., Patterson, M., Rackow, T.. (2020) Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5. Earth and Space Science, 7. 12 pp. 10.1029/2019EA001065
Roach, Lettie A., Dörr, Jakob, Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Caroline R. Holmes, Massonnet, François, Blockley, Edward W., Notz, Dirk, Rackow, Thomas, Raphael, Marilyn N., O'Farrell, Siobhan P., Bailey, David A., Bitz, Cecilia M.. (2020) Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47. 10.1029/2019GL086729
Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Caroline R. Holmes, Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Paul R. Holland, Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Thomas J. Bracegirdle. (2019) Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. 4299-4307. 10.1029/2018GL081796
Hosking, J. Scott ORCID record for J. Scott Hosking, MacLeod, D., Phillips, T. ORCID record for T. Phillips, Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for C.R. Holmes, Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E.F. ORCID record for E.F. Shuckburgh, Mitchell, D.. (2018) Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 13. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Hyder, Patrick, Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Caroline R. Holmes. (2018) CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift. Journal of Climate, 31. 195-211. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0320.1