Caroline Holmes, Author at British Antarctic Survey

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Caroline Holmes

Polar Climate Scientist

My research at BAS seeks to understand how the current set of climate models used in climate change assessments simulates sea ice, and how this affects our future projections of climate change both within the polar regions and remotely. I am analysing output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) used in the most recent IPCC asssessment (2013) to evaluate how different models simulate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes important to the evolution of sea ice concentration. I work closely with BAS colleagues in both the Polar Oceans team and Atmosphere, Ice and Climate teams. This research is funded under the NERC large grant “Real Projections – Robust projections of real world climate change” led by Mat Collins at the University of Exeter.

I completed an undergraduate degree in Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, followed by an MSc in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate at the University of Reading. With a particular interest in atmospheric dynamics, I pursued a PhD at the University of Reading Department of Meteorology. My thesis investigated the possible impacts of changes in sea ice cover on the midlatitude atmosphere, through idealised modelling experiments with imposed sea ice. I then undertook a short postdoc at the University of Edinburgh looking at impacts of climate change on Scotland in sectors such as building energy demand, before moving to the British Antarctic Survey to pursue research into the coupled climate system of the polar regions.

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2025

Atkinson, Angus. Pakhomov, Evgeny A. Laurenson, Angus. Sullivan, Emma. Brewin, Robert J.W. Holmes, Caroline . Clewley, Daniel. Schmidt, Katrin. Martinez-Vicente, Victor. (2025) Implications of the recent loss of Antarctic sea ice for phytoplankton and summer feeding habitats of salps and krill.

Chan, A.C. . England, M.R. . Screen, J.A. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Blockley, E.W. . Holmes, C.R. . (2025) Extreme Antarctic Sea Ice Loss Facilitated by Negative Shift of Southern Annular Mode.

Holmes, C. . Doddridge, E. Fretwell, P. . (2025) Antarctic sea ice #4: record lows between 2022 and 2025.

2024

Holmes, Caroline R. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Holland, Paul R. . Stroeve, Julienne. Wilkinson, Jeremy . (2024) Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Caton Harrison, Thomas . Holmes, Caroline R. . Lu, Hua . Martineau, Patrick. Phillips, Tony . (2024) Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change.

Collins, Matthew. Beverley, Jonathan D. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Catto, Jennifer. McCrystall, Michelle. Dittus, Andrea. Freychet, Nicolas. Grist, Jeremy . Hegerl, Gabriele C. Holland, Paul R. . Holmes, Caroline . Josey, Simon A. . Joshi, Manoj. Hawkins, Ed. Lo, Eunice. Lord, Natalie. Mitchell, Dann. Monerie, Paul-Arthur. Priestley, Matthew D. K. Scaife, Adam. Screen, James. Senior, Natasha. Sexton, David. Shuckburgh, Emily. Siegert, Stefan. Simpson, Charles. Stephenson, David B. Sutton, Rowan. Thompson, Vikki. Wilcox, Laura J. Woollings, Tim. (2024) Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world.

Jena, Babula. Turner, John . Reeves-Francois, Tylei. Bajish, C. C. Holmes, Caroline . Caton Harrison, Thomas . Phillips, Tony . Wang, Zhaomin. (2024) Occurrence of an unusual extensive ice-free feature within the pack ice of the central Weddell Sea, Antarctica.

Diamond, Rachel . Sime, Louise C. . Holmes, Caroline R. . Schroeder, David. (2024) CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023.

Jena, Babula. Kshitija, S. Bajish, C.C. Turner, John . Holmes, Caroline . Wilkinson, Jeremy . Mohan, Rahul. Thamban, M. (2024) Evolution of Antarctic Sea Ice Ahead of the Record Low Annual Maximum Extent in September 2023.

Gilbert, Ella . Holmes, Caroline . (2024) 2023’s Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record.

2023

Siegert, Martin. Bentley, Mike J. Atkinson, Angus. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Convey, Peter . Davies, Bethan. Downie, Rod. Hogg, Anna E. Holmes, Caroline . Hughes, Kevin A. . Meredith, Michael P. . Ross, Neil. Rumble, Jane. Wilkinson, Jeremy . (2023) Antarctic extreme events.

2022

Turner, John . Holmes, Caroline . Caton Harrison, Thomas . Phillips, Tony . Jena, Babula. Reeves-Francois, Tylei. Fogt, Ryan. Thomas, Elizabeth R. . Bajish, C.C. (2022) Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022.

Holmes, C.R. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Holland, P.R. . (2022) Antarctic sea ice projections constrained by historical ice cover and future global temperature change.

2020

Bracegirdle, T.J. . Holmes, C.R. . Hosking, J.S. . Marshall, G.J. . Osman, M. Patterson, M. Rackow, T. (2020) Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5.

Roach, Lettie A. Dörr, Jakob. Holmes, Caroline R. . Massonnet, François. Blockley, Edward W. Notz, Dirk. Rackow, Thomas. Raphael, Marilyn N. O'Farrell, Siobhan P. Bailey, David A. Bitz, Cecilia M. (2020) Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6.

2019

Holmes, Caroline R. . Holland, Paul R. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2019) Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes.

2018

Hosking, J. Scott . MacLeod, D. Phillips, T. . Holmes, C.R. . Watson, P. Shuckburgh, E.F. . Mitchell, D. (2018) Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world.

2017

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Hyder, Patrick. Holmes, Caroline R. . (2017) CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift.

Holmes, C. (2022). Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/e67242f2-e9aa-4402-85a3-be42d13354af

Tracking Antarctica’s Ice Fluctuations

The recent extreme swings in Antarctic sea ice extent emphasise the need to increase our knowledge of the drivers and climate implications of Antarctic sea ice loss.

Read more of: Tracking Antarctica’s Ice Fluctuations
Real Projections

Real Projections focused on understanding the processes driving sea ice variability and change, combining observational data with climate model outputs to produce more robust projections of future Antarctic sea ice area under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

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Regional data highlights emerging climate change signals

A greater understanding of how climate change impacts at a regional level is vital to developing effective climate policies that protect communities from escalating risks.

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Record low Antarctic sea ice ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change

Scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have found that the record-low levels of sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 were extremely unlikely to happen without the influence of climate change.

Read more of: Record low Antarctic sea ice ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
New Antarctic extremes ‘virtually certain’ as world warms

Extreme events in Antarctica such as ocean heatwaves and ice loss will almost certainly become more common and more severe, researchers say. With drastic action now needed to limit global […]

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The mystery of the missing Antarctic sea ice

Winter sea ice in the Antarctic is at a historic low, and scientists are working to understand why an area of ice the size of Greenland is missing. Scientists from […]

Read more of: The mystery of the missing Antarctic sea ice