Nilas is a state-of-the-art medium-range (1-15 day), high-resolution (6.25 km) probabilistic sea ice forecasting system developed by the Polar AI Lab at the British Antarctic Survey in collaboration with the University of Cambridge.
Nilas combines AMSR2-derived sea ice concentration with ECMWF AIFS-ENS weather forecasts using machine learning to create an ensemble forecast of possible sea ice conditions over the next fifteen days.
A regional forecasting model, Nilas outperforms all physics-based and AI-based forecasting systems over the Barents Sea in the Arctic and Weddell Sea region in the Antarctic. Future work will adapt the model to other seas throughout the polar regions.
Field trials aboard the RRS Sir David Attenborough in December 2025 demonstrated promising opportunities for Nilas to inform science and operations across strategic and tactical timescales.
