Thomas Bracegirdle, Author at British Antarctic Survey

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Thomas Bracegirdle

Atmosphere Ice and Climate Dep Science Leader

Education and appointments

2006-present Research Scientist. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK.

2002-2006 University of Reading, PhD in Meteorology on “The role of convection in the intensification of polar lows”.

1998-2002 The University of Edinburgh, BSc (Hons) in Physics with Meteorology.

International science coordination and policy

2022-present Co-lead of the European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) Collaborative Programme: Polar Climate Insights and Impacts.

2021-present Co-Chief Officer of the international SCAR Scientific Research Programme ‘Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System’ (AntClim^Now)

2016-2021 Provided climate-related advice on Antarctic Treaty papers as a member of the SCAR Standing Committee on the Antarctic Treaty System (SC-ATS)

Research grants awarded

2021-2025 Co-I on NERC Highlight Topic Grant DEFIANT (Drivers and Effects of Fluctuations in Sea Ice in the Antarctic)

2021-2024 PI for NERC Standard Grant Antarctic Coastal Winds (Improved projections of winds at the crossroads between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean).

2020-2024 Co-I on NERC Grant SOC (Southern Ocean Clouds).

2020-2024 Co-I on NERC Large Grant DeCAdeS (Drivers of Oceanic Change in the Amundsen Sea).

2016-2020 Co-I (PI on BAS component) for NERC Large Grant Real Projections (Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change).

2016-2019 Co-I (PI on BAS component) for NERC Standard Grant AFIS (Atmospheric Forcing of the Iceland Sea).

2016-2018 Co-I on Norwegian Research Council grant C-ICE (Counteracting effect of future Antarctic sea-ice loss on projected increases of summer Monsoon rainfall).

2014-2017 Co-I on NERC Standard Grant Improved Prediction of 21st Century West Antarctic Climate Change: the Role of the Amundsen Sea Low).

2013-2015 Co-I on NERC grant Reconstructing wind strength and atmospheric circulation in West Antarctica over the past 300 years.

2011-2012 Co-I on NERC grant Assessing simulations of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, meridional overturning circulation of the Southern Ocean and carbon uptake.

Research interests

I have always had a keen interest in meteorology and climate and have been conducting research on the atmospheric dynamics and climate of the polar regions since 2006. My main research interests are:

– Polar meteorology and climate

– Large-scale atmospheric circulation

– Troposphere-stratosphere interactions

– Climate model evaluation

– Methods for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate model projections

Author of 77 peer reviewed publications (Web of Science h-index of 29)

ORCID profile

Publons profile

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2026

Cable, Archie. Caton Harrison, Thomas . Kent, Elizabeth . Cornes, Richard . Bracegirdle, Thomas . (2026) A new index used to characterise the extent of Antarctic marine coastal winds in climate projections.

2025

Chan, A.C. . England, M.R. . Screen, J.A. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Blockley, E.W. . Holmes, C.R. . (2025) Extreme Antarctic Sea Ice Loss Facilitated by Negative Shift of Southern Annular Mode.

Yang, Xin . Zhang, Xiangdong. Gong, Xianda. Frey, Markus . González-Herrero, Sergi. Weiss, Alexandra . Engbers, Rainette. Persson, Ola. Radenz, Martin. Gorodetskaya, Irina. Bracegirdle, Thomas . Hall, Romy. (2025) Why Polar Winter Climate and Processes? [Meeting Report].

Hall, Richard J. Jones, Julie M. Fogt, Ryan L. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2025) Variability and Trends of the Amundsen Sea Low since the Early Twentieth Century from Seasonal-Station-Based Reconstructions.

Caton Harrison, Thomas . Lock, Adrian. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . King, John C. . Lu, Hua . Silvano, Alessandro. (2025) Sensitivity of near-surface marine winds and wind stress in coastal Antarctica to regional atmospheric model configuration.

2024

Holmes, Caroline R. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Holland, Paul R. . Stroeve, Julienne. Wilkinson, Jeremy . (2024) Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss.

Caton Harrison, Thomas . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Davrinche, Cécile. Dutrieux, Pierre . Gilbert, Ella . Haigh, Michael . Jones, Julie M. Kent, Elizabeth C. . King, John . Lu, Hua . Price, Ruth . Schmidt, Christina. Vignon, Étienne. Wiener, Valentin. (2024) Advances and next steps in observing and modeling Antarctica’s coastal winds.

Gerland, Sebastian. Aars, Jon. Bracegirdle, Thomas . Carmack, Eddy. Hop, Haakon. Hovelsrud, Grete K. Kovacs, Kit. Lydersen, Christian. Perovich, Don K. Richter-Menge, Jackie. Rybråten, Stine. Strøm, Hallvard. Turner, John . Editors: Eamer, Joan. Ahlenius, Hugo. Prestrud, Pål (2024) Chapter 5 – Ice in the sea.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Caton Harrison, Thomas . Holmes, Caroline R. . Lu, Hua . Martineau, Patrick. Phillips, Tony . (2024) Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change.

Jones, Colin G. Adloff, Fanny. Booth, Ben B. B. Cox, Peter M. Eyring, Veronika. Friedlingstein, Pierre. Frieler, Katja. Hewitt, Helene T. Jeffery, Hazel A. Joussaume, Sylvie. Koenigk, Torben. Lawrence, Bryan N. O'Rourke, Eleanor. Roberts, Malcolm J. Sanderson, Benjamin M. Séférian, Roland. Somot, Samuel. Vidale, Pier Luigi. van Vuuren, Detlef. Acosta, Mario. Bentsen, Mats. Bernardello, Raffaele. Betts, Richard. Blockley, Ed. Boé, Julien. Bracegirdle, Tom . Braconnot, Pascale. Brovkin, Victor. Buontempo, Carlo. Doblas-Reyes, Francisco. Donat, Markus. Epicoco, Italo. Falloon, Pete. Fiore, Sandro. Frölicher, Thomas. Fučkar, Neven S. Gidden, Matthew J. Goessling, Helge F. Graversen, Rune Grand. Gualdi, Silvio. Gutiérrez, José M. Ilyina, Tatiana. Jacob, Daniela. Jones, Chris D. Juckes, Martin. Kendon, Elizabeth. Kjellström, Erik. Knutti, Reto. Lowe, Jason. Mizielinski, Matthew. Nassisi, Paola. Obersteiner, Michael. Regnier, Pierre. Roehrig, Romain. Salas y Mélia, David. Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich. Schulz, Michael. Scoccimarro, Enrico. Terray, Laurent. Thiemann, Hannes. Wood, Richard A. Yang, Shuting. Zaehle, Sönke. (2024) Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy.

Collins, Matthew. Beverley, Jonathan D. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Catto, Jennifer. McCrystall, Michelle. Dittus, Andrea. Freychet, Nicolas. Grist, Jeremy . Hegerl, Gabriele C. Holland, Paul R. . Holmes, Caroline . Josey, Simon A. . Joshi, Manoj. Hawkins, Ed. Lo, Eunice. Lord, Natalie. Mitchell, Dann. Monerie, Paul-Arthur. Priestley, Matthew D. K. Scaife, Adam. Screen, James. Senior, Natasha. Sexton, David. Shuckburgh, Emily. Siegert, Stefan. Simpson, Charles. Stephenson, David B. Sutton, Rowan. Thompson, Vikki. Wilcox, Laura J. Woollings, Tim. (2024) Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world.

Caton Harrison, Thomas . King, John C. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Lu, Hua . (2024) Dynamics of extreme wind events in the marine and terrestrial sectors of coastal Antarctica.

2023

Wille, Jonathan D. Alexander, Simon P. Amory, Charles. Baiman, Rebecca. Barthélemy, Léonard. Bergstrom, Dana M. Berne, Alexis. Binder, Hanin. Blanchet, Juliette. Bozkurt, Deniz. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Casado, Mathieu. Choi, Taejin. Clem, Kyle R. Codron, Francis. Datta, Rajashree. Di Battista, Stefano. Favier, Vincent. Francis, Diana. Fraser, Alexander D. Fourré, Elise. Garreaud, René D. Genthon, Christophe. Gorodetskaya, Irina V. González-Herrero, Sergi. Heinrich, Victoria J. Hubert, Guillaume. Joos, Hanna. Kim, Seong-Joong. King, John C. . Kittel, Christoph. Landais, Amaelle. Lazzara, Matthew. Leonard, Gregory H. Lieser, Jan L. Maclennan, Michelle. Mikolajczyk, David. Neff, Peter. Ollivier, Inès. Sprenger, Michael. Trusel, Luke. Udy, Danielle. Vance, Tessa. Vignon, Étienne. Walker, Catherine. Wever, Nander. Zou, Xun. (2023) The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Wille, Jonathan D. Alexander, Simon P. Amory, Charles. Baiman, Rebecca. Barthélemy, Léonard. Bergstrom, Dana M. Berne, Alexis. Binder, Hanin. Blanchet, Juliette. Bozkurt, Deniz. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Casado, Mathieu. Choi, Taejin. Clem, Kyle R. Codron, Francis. Datta, Rajashree. Di Battista, Stefano. Favier, Vincent. Francis, Diana. Fraser, Alexander D. Fourré, Elise. Garreaud, René D. Genthon, Christophe. Gorodetskaya, Irina V. González-Herrero, Sergi. Heinrich, Victoria J. Hubert, Guillaume. Joos, Hanna. Kim, Seong-Joong. King, John C. . Kittel, Christoph. Landais, Amaelle. Lazzara, Matthew. Leonard, Gregory H. Lieser, Jan L. Maclennan, Michelle. Mikolajczyk, David. Neff, Peter. Ollivier, Inès. Sprenger, Michael. Trusel, Luke. Udy, Danielle. Vance, Tessa. Vignon, Étienne. Walker, Catherine. Weaver, Nander. Zou, Xun. (2023) The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers.

Hansen, Nicolaj. Orr, Andrew . Zou, Xun. Boberg, Fredrik. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Gilbert, Ella . Langen, Peter L. Lazzara, Matthew A. Mottram, Ruth. Phillips, Tony . Price, Ruth . Simonsen, Sebastian B. Webster, Stuart. (2023) The importance of cloud properties when assessing surface melting in an offline-coupled firn model over Ross Ice shelf, West Antarctica.

Lu, Hua . Orr, Andrew . King, John C. . Phillips, Tony . Gilbert, Ella . Colwell, Steve R. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2023) Extreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Compounding influence of atmospheric rivers and föhn conditions.

Siegert, Martin. Bentley, Mike J. Atkinson, Angus. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Convey, Peter . Davies, Bethan. Downie, Rod. Hogg, Anna E. Holmes, Caroline . Hughes, Kevin A. . Meredith, Michael P. . Ross, Neil. Rumble, Jane. Wilkinson, Jeremy . (2023) Antarctic extreme events.

Gao, Qinggang . Sime, Louise C. . McLaren, Alison J. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Capron, Emilie. Rhodes, Rachael H. Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian. Shi, Xiaoxu. Werner, Martin. (2023) Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics.

Marcheggiani, Andrea. Robson, Jon. Monerie, Paul-Arthur. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Smith, Doug. (2023) Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter.

2022

Holland, Paul R. . O'Connor, Gemma K. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Dutrieux, Pierre . Naughten, Kaitlin A. . Steig, Eric J. Schneider, David P. Jenkins, Adrian. Smith, James A. . (2022) Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries.

Caton Harrison, Thomas . Biri, Stavroula . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . King, John C. . Kent, Elizabeth C. . Vignon, Étienne. Turner, John . (2022) Reanalysis representation of low-level winds in the Antarctic near-coastal region.

Bracegirdle, T.J. . (2022) Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6.

Holmes, C.R. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Holland, P.R. . (2022) Antarctic sea ice projections constrained by historical ice cover and future global temperature change.

Ayres, Holly C. Screen, James A. Blockley, Edward W. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2022) The coupled atmosphere-ocean response to Antarctic sea-ice loss.

2021

Bracegirdle, Thomas . Lu, Hua . Robson, Jon. (2021) Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: Implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages.

Patterson, Matthew. Woollings, Tim. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2021) Tropical and subtropical forcing of future Southern Hemisphere stationary wave changes.

Lu, Hua . Gray, Lesley J. Martineau, Patrick. King, John C. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2021) Regime behavior in the upper stratosphere as a precursor of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the northern winter.

Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie. Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako. Agosta, Cécile. Alexander, Patrick. Albrecht, Torsten. Asay‐Davis, Xylar. Aschwanden, Andy. Barthel, Alice. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Calov, Reinhard. Chambers, Christopher. Choi, Youngmin. Cullather, Richard. Cuzzone, Joshua. Dumas, Christophe. Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis. Fettweis, Xavier. Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko. Gladstone, Rupert. Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf. Hattermann, Tore. Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika. Huybrechts, Philippe. Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas. Munneke, Peter Kuipers. Larour, Eric. Le clec'h, Sebastien. Lee, Victoria. Leguy, Gunter. Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu. Nias, Isabel. Pattyn, Frank. Pelle, Tyler. Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien. Reese, Ronja. Rückamp, Martin. Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne. Seroussi, Hélène. Shepherd, Andrew. Simon, Erika. Slater, Donald. Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta. Sun, Sainan. Tarasov, Lev. Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas. van de Wal, Roderik. van den Broeke, Michiel. Winkelmann, Ricarda. Zhao, Chen. Zhang, Tong. Zwinger, Thomas. (2021) Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Sansom, Philip G. Stephenson, David B. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2021) On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models.

2020

Orr, Andrew . Lu, Hua . Martineau, Patrick. Gerber, Edwin P. Marshall, Gareth J. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2020) Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?.

Patterson, Matthew. Woollings, Tim. Bracegirdle, Thomas . Lewis, Neil T. (2020) Wintertime Southern Hemisphere jet streams shaped by interaction of transient eddies with Antarctic orography.

Nowicki, Sophie. Goelzer, Heiko. Seroussi, Hélène. Payne, Anthony J. Lipscomb, William H. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako. Agosta, Cécile. Alexander, Patrick. Asay-Davis, Xylar S. Barthel, Alice. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Cullather, Richard. Felikson, Denis. Fettweis, Xavier. Gregory, Jonathan M. Hattermann, Tore. Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kuipers Munneke, Peter. Larour, Eric. Little, Christopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu. Nias, Isabel. Shepherd, Andrew. Simon, Erika. Slater, Donald. Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta. Trusel, Luke D. van den Broeke, Michiel R. van de Wal, Roderik. (2020) Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models.

Robson, Jon. Aksenov, Yevgeny . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Dimdore-Miles, Oscar. Griffiths, Paul T. Grosvenor, Daniel P. Hodson, Daniel L.R. Keeble, James. Megann, Alex . Osprey, Scott. Povey, Adam C. Schröder, David. Yang, Mingxi. Archibald, Alexander T. Carslaw, Ken S. Gray, Lesley. Jones, Colin. Kerridge, Brian. Knappett, Diane. Kuhlbrodt, Till. Russo, Maria. Sellar, Alistair. Siddans, Richard. Sinha, Bablu. Sutton, Rowan. Walton, Jeremy. Wilcox, Laura J. (2020) The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Krinner, Gerhard. Tonelli, Marcos. Haumann, F. Alexander. Naughten, Kaitlin A. . Rackow, Thomas. Roach, Lettie A. Wainer, Ilana. (2020) Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6.

Bracegirdle, T.J. . Holmes, C.R. . Hosking, J.S. . Marshall, G.J. . Osman, M. Patterson, M. Rackow, T. (2020) Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5.

Barthel, Alice. Agosta, Cécile. Little, Christopher M. Hattermann, Tore. Jourdain, Nicolas C. Goelzer, Heiko. Nowicki, Sophie. Seroussi, Helene. Straneo, Fiammetta. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2020) CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica.

Allen, Claire . Thomas, Elizabeth R. . Blagbrough, Hilary . Tetzner, Dieter . Warren, Richard A. Ludlow, Emily C. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2020) Preliminary evidence for the role played by south westerly wind strength on the marine diatom content of an Antarctic Peninsula ice core (1980–2010).

Pope, James O. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Renfrew, Ian A. Elvidge, Andrew D. (2020) The impact of wintertime sea ice anomalies on high surface heat flux events in the Iceland and Greenland Seas.

2019

Patterson, Matthew. Bracegirdle, Thomas . Woolings, Tim. (2019) Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in CMIP5 and future changes in the Australia‐New Zealand sector.

Holland, Paul R. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Dutrieux, Pierre. Jenkins, Adrian . Steig, Eric J. (2019) West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing.

Renfrew, I. A. Pickart, R. S. Våge, K. Moore, G. W. K. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Elvidge, A. D. Jeansson, E. Lachlan-Cope, Thomas . McRaven, L.T. Papritz, L. Reuder, J. Sodemann, H. Terpstra, A. Waterman, S. Valdimarsson, H. Weiss, Alexandra . Almansi, M. . Bahr, F. Brakstad, A. Barrell, C. Brooke, J. K. Brooks, B.J. Brooks, I. M. Brooks, M. E. Bruvik, E. M. Duscha, C. Fer, I. Golid, H. M. Hallerstig, M. Hessevik, I. Huang, J. Houghton, L. Jónsson, S. Jonassen, M. Jackson, K. Kvalsund, K. Kolstad, E. W. Konstali, K. Kristiansen, J. Ladkin, Russell. Lin, P. Macrander, A. Mitchell, A. Olafsson, H. Pacini, A. Payne, C. Palmason, B. Pérez-Hernández, M. D. Peterson, A. K. Petersen, G. N. Pisareva, M. N. Pope, James O. . Seidl, A. Semper, S. Sergeev, D. Skjelsvik, S. Søiland, H. Smith, D. Spall, M. A. Spengler, T. Touzeau, A. Tupper, G. Weng, Y. Williams, K. D. Yang, X. Zhou, S. (2019) The Iceland Greenland Seas Project.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Colleoni, Florence. Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A.N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark. Favier, Vincent. Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian. Goose, Hugues. Hobbs, Will. Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen. Sime, Louise . Thomas, Elizabeth R. . van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana. (2019) Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate.

Holmes, Caroline R. . Holland, Paul R. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2019) Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes.

Screen, James A. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Simmonds, I. (2019) Polar climate change as manifest in atmospheric circulation.

2018

Hyder, Patrick. Edwards, John M. Allan, Richard P. Hewitt, Helene T. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Gregory, Jonathan M. Wood, Richard A. Meijers, Andrew J.S. . Mulcahy, Jane. Field, Paul. Furtado, Kalli. Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro. Williams, Keith D. Copsey, Dan. Josey, Simon A. . Liu, Chunlei. Roberts, Chris D. Sanchez, Claudio. Ridley, Jeff. Thorpe, Livia. Hardiman, Steven C. Mayar, Michael. Berry, David I. Belcher, Stephen E. (2018) Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Lu, Hua . Eade, Rosie. Woollings, Tim. (2018) Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability?.

McKenna, Christine M. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Shuckburgh, Emily F. . Haynes, Peter H. Joshi, Manoj M. (2018) Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts.

Li, Camille. Michel, Clio. Graff, Lise Seland. Bethke, Ingo. Zappa, Giuseppe. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Fischer, Erich. Harvey, Ben J. Trond, Iversen. King, Martin P. Krishnan, Harinarayan. Lierhammer, Ludwig. Mitchell, Daniel. Scinocca, John. Shiogama, Hideo. Stone, Dáithí A. Wettstein, Justin J. (2018) Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts.

Biersma, Elisabeth M. . Jackson, Jennifer A. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Griffiths, Howard. Linse, Katrin . Convey, Peter . (2018) Low genetic variation between South American and Antarctic populations of the bank-forming moss Chorisodontium aciphyllum (Dicranaceae).

2017

Griffiths, Huw J. . Meijers, Andrew J.S. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2017) More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Hyder, Patrick. Holmes, Caroline R. . (2017) CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift.

Gutt, J. Isla, E. Bertler, A.N. Bodeker, G.E. Bracegirdle, T.J. . Cavanagh, R.D. . Comiso, J.C. Convey, P. . Cummings, V. De Conto, R. De Master, D. di Prisco, G. d'Ovidio, F. Griffiths, H.J. . Khan, A.L. Lopez-Martinez, J. Murray, A.E. Nielsen, U.N. Ott, S. Post, A. Ropert-Coudert, Y. Saucede, T. Scherer, R. Schiaparelli, S. Schloss, I.R. Smith, C.R. Stefels, J. Stevens, C. Strugnell, J.M. Trimborn, S. Verde, C. Verleyen, E. Wall, D.H. Wilson, N.G. Xavier, J.C. . (2017) Cross-disciplinarity in the advance of Antarctic ecosystem research.

Cavanagh, Rachel D. . Murphy, Eugene J. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Turner, John . Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. . Johnston, Nadine M. . Bellerby, Richard G.J. Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel p. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. . Staniland, Iain J. . Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter. Xavier, Jose C. . (2017) A synergistic approach for evaluating climate model output for ecological applications.

Lee, Jasmine R. Raymond, Ben. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Chades, Iadine. Fuller, Richard A. Shaw, Justine D. Terauds, Aleks. (2017) Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

Turner, John . Phillips, Tony . Marshall, Gareth J. . Hosking, J. Scott . Pope, James O. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Deb, Pranab. (2017) Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016.

Lu, Hua . Gray, Lesley J. White, Ian P. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2017) Stratospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle: Breaking planetary waves, internal reflection and resonance.

Turner, John . Orr, Andrew . Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar . Jenkins, Adrian . Bingham, Robert G. Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2017) Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica.

Sime, Louise S. . Hodgson, Dominic . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Allen, Claire . Perren, Bianca . Roberts, Stephen . de Boer, Agatha M. (2017) Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models.

2016

Kolstad, E. W. Bracegirdle, T. J. . (2016) Sensitivity of an apparently hurricane-like polar low to sea surface temperature.

Boland, Emma J.D. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Shuckburgh, Emily F. . (2016) Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models.

Turner, John . Hosking, J. Scott . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Phillips, Tony . Marshall, Gareth J. . (2016) Variability and trends in the Southern Hemisphere high latitude, quasi-stationary planetary waves.

Turner, John . Lu, Hua . White, Ian. King, John C. . Phillips, Tony . Hosking, J. Scott . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Marshall, Gareth J. . Mulvaney, Robert . Deb, Pranab. (2016) Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.

Kolstad, Erik W. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Zahn, Matthias. (2016) Re-examining the roles of surface heat flux and latent heat release in a “hurricane-like” polar low over the Barents Sea.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Barrand, Nicholas E. Kusahara, Kazuya. Wainer, Ilana. (2016) Predicting Antarctic climate using climate models.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Stephenson, David B. Turner, John . Phillips, Tony . (2016) The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation.

Hosking, J. Scott . Orr, Andrew . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Turner, John . (2016) Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing.

2015

Mayewski, P. A. Bracegirdle, T. . Goodwin, I. Schneider, D. Bertler, N. A. N. Birkel, S. Carleton, A. England, M. H. Kang, J.-H. Khan, A. Russell, J. Turner, J. . Velicogna, I. (2015) Potential for Southern Hemisphere climate surprises.

Xavier, Jose C. . Hill, S.L. . Belchier, M. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Murphy, E.J. . Dias, J. Lopes. Editors: Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre. Jeltsch, Rolf. Pinto, Alberto Adrego. Viana, Marcelo (2015) From ice to penguins: The role of mathematics in Antarctic research.

Turner, John . Hosking, J. Scott . Marshall, Gareth J. . Phillips, Tony . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2015) Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low.

Turner, John . Hosking, J. Scott . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Marshall, Gareth J. . Phillips, Tony . (2015) Recent changes in Antarctic sea ice.

Bracegirdle, T.J. . Bertler, N.A.N. Carleton, A.M. Ding, Q. Fogwill, C.J. Fyfe, J.C. Hellmer, H.H. Karpechko, A.Y. Kusahara, K. Larour, E. Mayewski, P.A. Meier, W.N. Polvani, L.M. Russell, J.L. Stevenson, S.L. Turner, J. . van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W.J. Wainer, I. (2015) A multi-disciplinary perspective on climate model evaluation for Antarctica.

2014

Lu, Hua . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Phillips, Tony . Turner, John . (2014) A comparative study of wave forcing derived from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data sets.

Marshall, Gareth J. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2014) An examination of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic surface air temperatures in the CMIP5 historical runs.

Gutt, Julian. Bertler, Nancy. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Buschmann, Alexander. Comiso, Josefino. Hosie, Graham. Isla, Enrique. Schloss, Irene R. Smith, Craig R. Tournadre, Jean. Xavier, Jose C. . (2014) The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses – an integrated circumpolar assessment.

Gutt, Julian. Adams, Byron. Bracegirdle, Thomas . Cowan, Don. Cummings, Vonda. di Prisco, Guido. Gradinger, Rolf. Isla, Enrique. McIntyre, Trevor. Murphy, Eugene . Peck, Lloyd . Schloss, Irene. Smith, Craig. Suckling, Coleen . Takahashi, Akinori. Verde, Cinza. Wall, Diana H. Xavier, José . (2014) Antarctic Thresholds – Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation” (AnT-ERA), a new SCAR-biology programme.

Thomas, Elizabeth R . Bracegirdle, Thomas J . (2014) Precipitation pathways for five new ice core sites in Ellsworth Land, West Antarctica.

Lu, Hua . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Phillips, Tony . Bushell, Andrew. Gray, Lesley. (2014) Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Turner, John . Hosking, J. Scott . Phillips, Tony . (2014) Sources of uncertainty in projections of 21st century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models.

2013

Thomas, Elizabeth R . Bracegirdle, Thomas J . Turner, John . Wolff, Eric W. (2013) A 308-year record of climate variability in West Antarctica.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2013) Detection and attribution of Antarctic climate change.

Turner, John . Barrand, Nicholas E. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Convey, Peter . Hodgson, Dominic A. . Jarvis, Martin. Jenkins, Adrian . Marshall, Gareth . Meredith, Michael P. . Roscoe, Howard. Shanklin, Jon. French, John. Goosse, Hugues. Guglielmin, Mauro. Gutt, Julian. Jacobs, Stan. Kennicutt, Marlon C. Masson-Delmotte, Valerie. Mayewski, Paul. Navarro, Francisco. Robinson, Sharon. Scambos, Ted. Sparrow, Mike. Summerhayes, Colin. Speer, Kevin. Klepikov, Alexander. (2013) Antarctic climate change and the environment: an update.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Shuckburgh, Emily . Sallee, Jean-Baptiste. Wang, Zhaomin. Meijers, Andrew J.S. . Bruneau, Nicolas. Phillips, Tony . Wilcox, Laura J. (2013) Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence.

Sallee, J.-B. Shuckburgh, E. . Bruneau, N. Meijers, AJ.S. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Wang, Z. Roy, T. (2013) Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response.

Turner, John . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Phillips, Tony . Marshall, Gareth J. . Hosking, J. Scott . (2013) An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2013) Climatology and recent increase of westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea derived from six reanalyses.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Stephenson, David B. (2013) On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming.

Orr, Andrew . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Hosking, J. Scott . Feng, Wuhu. Roscoe, Howard K. Haigh, Joanna D. (2013) Strong dynamical modulation of the cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with the Antarctic ozone hole.

Turner, John . Bracegirdle, Tom . (2013) Polar lows and other high latitude weather systems.

2012

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Stephenson, David B. (2012) Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections.

Orr, Andrew . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Hosking, J. Scott . Jung, Thomas. Haigh, Joanna D. Phillips, Tony . Feng, Wuhu. (2012) Possible dynamical mechanisms for Southern Hemisphere climate change due to the ozone hole.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Marshall, Gareth J. . (2012) The reliability of Antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses.

Meijers, A.J.S. . Shuckburgh, E. . Bruneau, N. Sallee, J.-B. Bracegirdle, T.J. . Wang, Z. (2012) Representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the CMIP5 climate models and future changes under warming scenarios.

Sallee, J.-B. Shuckburgh, E. . Bruneau, N. Meijers, A.J.S. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . Wang, Z. (2012) Assessment of Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth in CMIP5 models: historical bias and forcing response.

Føre, Ivan. Kristjánsson, Jón Egill. Kolstad, Erik W. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Saetra, Øyvind. Røsting, Bjørn. (2012) A ‘hurricane-like’ polar low fuelled by sensible heat flux: high-resolution numerical simulations.

Clarke, Andrew . Barnes, David K. A. . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Ducklow, Hugh. W. King, John C. . Meredith, Michael P. . Murphy, Eugene J. . Peck, Lloyd S. . Editors: Rogers, Alex D. Johnston, Nadine M. . Murphy, Eugene J. . Clarke, Andrew (2012) The impact of regional climate change on the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula.

Gutt, Julian. Zurell, Damaris. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Cheung, William. Clark, Melody S. . Convey, Peter . Danis, Bruno. David, Bruno. De Broyer, Claude. Di Prisco, Guido. Griffiths, Huw . Laffont, Rémi. Peck, Lloyd S. . Pierrat, Benjamin. Riddle, Martin J. Saucède, Thomas. Turner, John . Verde, Cinzia. Wang, Zhaomin . Grimm, Volker. (2012) Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept.

Bracegirdle, Thomas . (2012) The seasonal cycle of stratosphere-troposphere coupling at southern high latitudes associated with the semi-annual oscillation in sea-level pressure.

2011

Justino, F. Setzer, A. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Mendes, D. Grimm, A. Dechiche, G. Schaefer, C.E.G.R. (2011) Harmonic analysis of climatological temperature over Antarctica: present day and greenhouse warming perspectives.

Abram, Nerilie J. Thomas, Elizabeth R. . McConnell, Joseph R. Mulvaney, Robert . Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Sime, Louise C. . Aristarain, Alberto J. (2011) Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica.

Linders, T. Saetra, Ø. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2011) Limited polar low sensitivity to sea-surface temperature.

Connolley, William M. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2011) An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models.

Kolstad, Erik W. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2011) Marine cold-air outbreaks in the future: an assessment of IPCC AR4 model results for the Northern Hemisphere.

2010

Thomas, E.R. . Dennis, P. F. Bracegirdle, T.J. . Franzke, C. (2010) Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula.

Thomas, E.R. . Bracegirdle, T.J. . (2010) Improving ice core interpretation using in situ and reanalysis data.

Kolstad, Erik W. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Seierstad, Ivar A. (2010) Marine cold-air outbreaks in the North Atlantic: temporal distribution and associations with large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Gray, Suzanne L. (2010) The dynamics of a polar low assessed using potential vorticity inversion.

Bracegirdle, Thomas . Kolstad, Erik W. (2010) Climatology and variability of Southern Hemisphere marine cold-air outbreaks.

Turner, John . Anderson, Philip. Lachlan-Cope, Thomas . Colwell, Steve. Phillips, Tony . Kirchgaessner, Amélie . Marshall, Gareth J. . King, John C. . Bracegirdle, Tom . Vaughan, David G. . Lagun, Victor. Orr, Andrew . (2010) Record low surface air temperature at Vostok Station, Antarctica.

2009

Turner, John . Comiso, Josefino C. Marshall, Gareth J. . Lachlan-Cope, Tom A. . Bracegirdle, Tom . Maksym, Ted. Meredith, Michael P. . Wang, Zhaomin . Orr, Andrew . (2009) Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent.

2008

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . Connolley, William M. Turner, John . (2008) Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century.

Caton Harrison, T., Lock, A., Bracegirdle, T., King, J., & Lu, H. (2025). Surface fields and vertical cross-sections from Met Office Unified Model sensitivity experiments run over a sector of East Antarctica, 2011 – 2017 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/8f5f8ce3-9bd9-40b4-9f09-14a0d680a838
Holmes, C. (2022). Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/e67242f2-e9aa-4402-85a3-be42d13354af
Bracegirdle, T. (2018). Southern Hemisphere tropospheric westerly jet: 1979-present (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Polar Data Centre, Natural Environment Research Council, UK. https://doi.org/10.5285/3952a4fe-683a-42e7-a074-bdec41c8ab16

PRESCIENT

PRESCIENT supports long-term, strategically important measurements and capabilities for the wider science community.

Read more of: PRESCIENT
Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region

CANARI aims to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change.

Read more of: Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region
Antarctic surface mass and energy exchanges

SURFEIT unites UK and international scientists to study Antarctic ice and atmosphere interactions, improve sea-level projections, and support climate action.

Read more of: Antarctic surface mass and energy exchanges
Tracking Antarctica’s Ice Fluctuations

The recent extreme swings in Antarctic sea ice extent emphasise the need to increase our knowledge of the drivers and climate implications of Antarctic sea ice loss.

Read more of: Tracking Antarctica’s Ice Fluctuations
Southern Ocean Clouds

Southern Ocean Clouds improves climate models by studying cloud processes over the Southern Ocean to reduce global prediction errors.

Read more of: Southern Ocean Clouds
Antarctic Coastal Winds

This project aimed to improve observational knowledge of winds along the Antarctic coast and use this to both evaluate the current state-of-the art climate models and help make improvements for the next model generation.

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Real Projections

Real Projections focused on understanding the processes driving sea ice variability and change, combining observational data with climate model outputs to produce more robust projections of future Antarctic sea ice area under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Read more of: Real Projections
Iceland Greenland seas Project

The Iceland Greenland Seas Project investigates how atmosphere-ocean processes in the Iceland Sea create the dense waters that flow through Denmark Strait and feed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for global and European climate.

Read more of: Iceland Greenland seas Project
North Atlantic climate system integrated study

ACSIS focussed on understanding changes occurring across the North Atlantic climate system in the ocean, the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the interactions between these constituent components.

Read more of: North Atlantic climate system integrated study
Past Westerly Winds

Past Westerly Winds research project used climate model simulations to investigate how Southern Ocean westerly winds behaved during the last glacial maximum.

Read more of: Past Westerly Winds
West Antarctica wind strength and atmospheric circulation

This project used ice core chemical and biological tracers, including marine diatoms swept onto the ice sheet by wind, to reconstruct 300 years of wind strength and atmospheric circulation patterns in West Antarctica.

Read more of: West Antarctica wind strength and atmospheric circulation

Regional data highlights emerging climate change signals

A greater understanding of how climate change impacts at a regional level is vital to developing effective climate policies that protect communities from escalating risks.

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Extreme heatwave in East Antarctica caused by record-breaking ‘atmospheric river’

Scientists have identified the intricate meteorological drivers that led to an intense heatwave across East Antarctica in from 15-19 March 2022.

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New study calls for unified research to understand changing ecosystems

A new multidisciplinary study led by scientists at British Antarctic Study (BAS) stresses the need for an integrated approach to understand the effects of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. […]

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More losers than winners for Southern Ocean marine life

A new study of the marine invertebrates living in the seas around Antarctica reveals there will be more ‘losers’ than ‘winners’ over the next century as the Antarctic seafloor warms. […]

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Climate change may cause expansion to ice-free areas across Antarctica

Ice-free areas in Antarctica could expand by close to 25 per cent by 2100 and drastically change the biodiversity of the continent, research published this week in Nature has shown. […]

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Storms caused massive Antarctic sea ice loss in 2016

A series of unprecedented storms over the Southern Ocean likely caused the most dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice seen to date, a new study finds. Antarctic sea ice – […]

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NEWS STORY: Climate records from ice cores

New ice core record shows climate variability in West Antarctica A 308-year ice core record provides new data on climate variability in coastal West Antarctica and shows that a clear […]

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Leader (Chief Officer), Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21)
Representative of the SCAR Physical Sciences Group, Standing Committee on the Antarctic Treaty System (SCATS)
Liaison Officer to the Physical Sciences, Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (Ant-ERA)
Member, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE)
Member, International Commission on Polar Meteorology
Member, The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6)

Team

Atmosphere, Ice and Climate team

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