20 September, 2010

Date and venue

Friday 22 October 2010; 11am – 5pm

Royal Statistical Society
12 Errol St

Map of venue

Meeting summary

This event is being held in association with the Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN) for Industrial Mathematics, and the Cambridge Judge Business School.

There is much interest in the possibility of detecting and predicting critical changes in environmental and other complex systems. Climate tipping points, earthquakes and financial crashes are three examples. A variety of techniques for tackling these challenges are being developed by physicists, mathematicians and statisticians, but their success is still a matter for debate. This meeting brings together researchers and practitioners from several disciplines to present and discuss their ideas about this important topic, and aims to stimulate further interest and advances in the field.


Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
Parallels between Earthquake Prediction, Financial Crash Prediction and Epileptic Seizures Predictions.

Michael Thompson (Cambridge/UCL) and Jan Sieber (Portsmouth)
Climate Tipping as a Noisy Bifurcation: a Predictive Technique.

Claudie Beaulieu (Princeton)
Change Point Detection using the Informational Approach with Applications in the Atmospheric Sciences

Valerie Livina (University of East Anglia)
Applying Degenerate Fingerprinting in Studying Climate Tipping Points

Cosma Shalizi (Carnegia Mellon/Santa Fe)
Markovian, Predictive, and Conceivably Causal Representations of Stochastic Processes


Chris Ferro (Exeter) and Nick Watkins (British Antarctic Survey)


Registration from 10.30am onwards.

Registration fees

The registration fee includes lunch and refreshments and is as follows:

  • Retired/Student Fellows: TBA
  • CStat/GradStat £18
  • Fellows £20
  • Members £25
  • Non-members £30

Registration form will be available soon or contact Chris Ferro (email: C.A.T.Ferro@exeter.ac.uk) for further details.

Related links

Royal Statistical Society