My research at BAS seeks to understand how the current set of climate models used in climate change assessments simulates sea ice, and how this affects our future projections of climate change both within the polar regions and remotely. I am analysing output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) used in the most recent IPCC asssessment (2013) to evaluate how different models simulate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes important to the evolution of sea ice concentration. I work closely with BAS colleagues in both the Polar Oceans team and Atmosphere, Ice and Climate teams. This research is funded under the NERC large grant “Real Projections – Robust projections of real world climate change” led by Mat Collins at the University of Exeter.

I completed an undergraduate degree in Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, followed by an MSc in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate at the University of Reading. With a particular interest in atmospheric dynamics, I pursued a PhD at the University of Reading Department of Meteorology. My thesis investigated the possible impacts of changes in sea ice cover on the midlatitude atmosphere, through idealised modelling experiments with imposed sea ice. I then undertook a short postdoc at the University of Edinburgh looking at impacts of climate change on Scotland in sectors such as building energy demand, before moving to the British Antarctic Survey to pursue research into the coupled climate system of the polar regions.

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2026

Arndt, Stefanie ORCID record for Arndt, Stefanie. Dadic, Ruzica ORCID record for Dadic, Ruzica. Spreen, Gunnar ORCID record for Spreen, Gunnar. Tedesco, Letizia ORCID record for Tedesco, Letizia. Vancoppenolle, Martin ORCID record for Vancoppenolle, Martin. Aulicino, Giuseppe ORCID record for Aulicino, Giuseppe. Beck, Inga ORCID record for Beck, Inga. Cordero, Raul R. ORCID record for Cordero, Raul R.. Crabeck, Odile. Cusick, Allison ORCID record for Cusick, Allison. Delille, Bruno ORCID record for Delille, Bruno. Deregibus, Dolores ORCID record for Deregibus, Dolores. Dove, Lily. Driscoll, Simon. Esquete, Patricia ORCID record for Esquete, Patricia. Fleury, Sara ORCID record for Fleury, Sara. Flocco, Daniela ORCID record for Flocco, Daniela. Fuchs, Niels ORCID record for Fuchs, Niels. Gabarró, Carolina ORCID record for Gabarró, Carolina. Gerland, Sebastian ORCID record for Gerland, Sebastian. Guarino, Maria Vittoria. Halfter, Svenja ORCID record for Halfter, Svenja. Heil, Petra ORCID record for Heil, Petra. Henley, Sian ORCID record for Henley, Sian. Hobbs, Will ORCID record for Hobbs, Will. Hoffman, Lauren ORCID record for Hoffman, Lauren. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Iovino, Doroteaciro ORCID record for Iovino, Doroteaciro. Jena, Babula ORCID record for Jena, Babula. Jin, Emilia ORCID record for Jin, Emilia. Klocker, Andreas ORCID record for Klocker, Andreas. Lavergne, Thomas ORCID record for Lavergne, Thomas. Liu, Xinlong ORCID record for Liu, Xinlong. Llanillo, Pedro J. ORCID record for Llanillo, Pedro J.. Maksym, Ted ORCID record for Maksym, Ted. Martin, Torge ORCID record for Martin, Torge. Marzocchi, Alice ORCID record for Marzocchi, Alice. Massom, Robert ORCID record for Massom, Robert. Massonnet, François ORCID record for Massonnet, François. Matero, Ilkka ORCID record for Matero, Ilkka. Meiners, Klaus ORCID record for Meiners, Klaus. Merkouriadi, Ioanna. Moreau, Sebastien ORCID record for Moreau, Sebastien. Rack, Wolfgang. Rampal, Pierre. Ricker, Robert ORCID record for Ricker, Robert. Scardilli, Alvaro ORCID record for Scardilli, Alvaro. Seguro, Isabel ORCID record for Seguro, Isabel. Smith, Inga ORCID record for Smith, Inga. Spolaor, Andrea ORCID record for Spolaor, Andrea. Tamura, Takeshi. Tang, Haosu ORCID record for Tang, Haosu. Tavri, Aikaterini ORCID record for Tavri, Aikaterini. Tebben, Jan ORCID record for Tebben, Jan. Tripathy, Sarat Chandra ORCID record for Tripathy, Sarat Chandra. Vichi, Marcello. Weiss, Alexandra ORCID record for Weiss, Alexandra. Zhou, Lu ORCID record for Zhou, Lu. Lawrence, Isobel ORCID record for Lawrence, Isobel. (2026) Antarctica InSync Scientific Theme 2. Rapid sea ice decline and its causes and consequences [White Paper].

Siegert, Martin. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Convey, Peter ORCID record for Convey, Peter. Hendry, Katherine ORCID record for Hendry, Katherine. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Hughes, Kevin A. ORCID record for Hughes, Kevin A.. (2026) Antarctic science operations must account for climate change and extreme environmental events.

2025

Atkinson, Angus. Pakhomov, Evgeny A. Laurenson, Angus. Sullivan, Emma. Brewin, Robert J.W. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Clewley, Daniel. Schmidt, Katrin. Martinez-Vicente, Victor. (2025) Implications of the recent loss of Antarctic sea ice for phytoplankton and summer feeding habitats of salps and krill.

Chan, A.C. ORCID record for Chan, A.C.. England, M.R. ORCID record for England, M.R.. Screen, J.A. ORCID record for Screen, J.A.. Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, T.J.. Blockley, E.W. ORCID record for Blockley, E.W.. Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for Holmes, C.R.. (2025) Extreme Antarctic Sea Ice Loss Facilitated by Negative Shift of Southern Annular Mode.

Holmes, C. ORCID record for Holmes, C.. Doddridge, E. Fretwell, P. ORCID record for Fretwell, P.. (2025) Antarctic sea ice #4: record lows between 2022 and 2025.

2024

Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Stroeve, Julienne. Wilkinson, Jeremy ORCID record for Wilkinson, Jeremy. (2024) Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Caton Harrison, Thomas ORCID record for Caton Harrison, Thomas. Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. Lu, Hua ORCID record for Lu, Hua. Martineau, Patrick. Phillips, Tony ORCID record for Phillips, Tony. (2024) Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change.

Collins, Matthew. Beverley, Jonathan D. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Catto, Jennifer. McCrystall, Michelle. Dittus, Andrea. Freychet, Nicolas. Grist, Jeremy ORCID record for Grist, Jeremy. Hegerl, Gabriele C. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Josey, Simon A. ORCID record for Josey, Simon A.. Joshi, Manoj. Hawkins, Ed. Lo, Eunice. Lord, Natalie. Mitchell, Dann. Monerie, Paul-Arthur. Priestley, Matthew D. K. Scaife, Adam. Screen, James. Senior, Natasha. Sexton, David. Shuckburgh, Emily. Siegert, Stefan. Simpson, Charles. Stephenson, David B. Sutton, Rowan. Thompson, Vikki. Wilcox, Laura J. Woollings, Tim. (2024) Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world.

Jena, Babula. Turner, John ORCID record for Turner, John. Reeves-Francois, Tylei. Bajish, C. C. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Caton Harrison, Thomas ORCID record for Caton Harrison, Thomas. Phillips, Tony ORCID record for Phillips, Tony. Wang, Zhaomin. (2024) Occurrence of an unusual extensive ice-free feature within the pack ice of the central Weddell Sea, Antarctica.

Diamond, Rachel ORCID record for Diamond, Rachel. Sime, Louise C. ORCID record for Sime, Louise C.. Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. Schroeder, David. (2024) CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023.

Jena, Babula. Kshitija, S. Bajish, C.C. Turner, John ORCID record for Turner, John. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Wilkinson, Jeremy ORCID record for Wilkinson, Jeremy. Mohan, Rahul. Thamban, M. (2024) Evolution of Antarctic Sea Ice Ahead of the Record Low Annual Maximum Extent in September 2023.

Gilbert, Ella ORCID record for Gilbert, Ella. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. (2024) 2023’s Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record.

2023

Siegert, Martin. Bentley, Mike J. Atkinson, Angus. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Convey, Peter ORCID record for Convey, Peter. Davies, Bethan. Downie, Rod. Hogg, Anna E. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Hughes, Kevin A. ORCID record for Hughes, Kevin A.. Meredith, Michael P. ORCID record for Meredith, Michael P.. Ross, Neil. Rumble, Jane. Wilkinson, Jeremy ORCID record for Wilkinson, Jeremy. (2023) Antarctic extreme events.

2022

Turner, John ORCID record for Turner, John. Holmes, Caroline ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline. Caton Harrison, Thomas ORCID record for Caton Harrison, Thomas. Phillips, Tony ORCID record for Phillips, Tony. Jena, Babula. Reeves-Francois, Tylei. Fogt, Ryan. Thomas, Elizabeth R. ORCID record for Thomas, Elizabeth R.. Bajish, C.C. (2022) Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022.

Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for Holmes, C.R.. Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, T.J.. Holland, P.R. ORCID record for Holland, P.R.. (2022) Antarctic sea ice projections constrained by historical ice cover and future global temperature change.

2020

Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, T.J.. Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for Holmes, C.R.. Hosking, J.S. ORCID record for Hosking, J.S.. Marshall, G.J. ORCID record for Marshall, G.J.. Osman, M. Patterson, M. Rackow, T. (2020) Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5.

Roach, Lettie A. Dörr, Jakob. Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. Massonnet, François. Blockley, Edward W. Notz, Dirk. Rackow, Thomas. Raphael, Marilyn N. O'Farrell, Siobhan P. Bailey, David A. Bitz, Cecilia M. (2020) Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6.

2019

Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. (2019) Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes.

2018

Hosking, J. Scott ORCID record for Hosking, J. Scott. MacLeod, D. Phillips, T. ORCID record for Phillips, T.. Holmes, C.R. ORCID record for Holmes, C.R.. Watson, P. Shuckburgh, E.F. ORCID record for Shuckburgh, E.F.. Mitchell, D. (2018) Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world.

2017

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Hyder, Patrick. Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID record for Holmes, Caroline R.. (2017) CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift.

• Holmes, C. (2022). Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/e67242f2-e9aa-4402-85a3-be42d13354af

16. Tracking Antarctica’s Ice Fluctuations

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20. Real Projections

    Real Projections focused on understanding the processes driving sea ice variability and change, combining observational data with climate model outputs to produce more robust projections of future Antarctic sea ice area under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

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