I am an ageing ice/ocean scientist in the Shelf Seas oceanography group at BAS, and an honorary professor at the University of Bristol. My research focusses on polar oceans, sea ice (frozen seawater), and ice sheets (glacier ice, formed from compacted snow). The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise, and this has been caused by ocean melting of its floating ice shelves. Greenland’s fjord-terminating glaciers are speeding up, and their increased meltwater may interfere with Atlantic ocean currents and European weather.  My research aims to understand why this ice loss is occurring, how it might change in future, and how this is related to human activities.

List of publications

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/ph/pubs.html

Biographical ramblings

All the way back in 1998, I somehow emerged from the University of East Anglia with a degree in Mathematics with Environmental Science. I moved to Loughborough University for my Ph.D., where I studied the physics of the ‘thermal bar’, a sinking current that forms in cold lakes. The project was focussed on Lake Baikal in Siberia, a truly amazing place, and I visited the Russian Academy of Sciences institute in Irkutsk as part of the project.

After that, I spent 18 months at the Met Office as a developer of the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model, which produced 5-day forecasts of the world’s oceans. This taught me about the astonishing effort required to produce the weather forecasts that we all take for granted. I then escaped to a postdoctoral position at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University College London, where I worked on simplified models of glacial meltwater which flows along the base of Antarctic ice shelves.

This work neatly led to my current research at BAS, which I joined way back in 2005. I have used many research tools over the years, including complicated numerical models and simple physical theories. I have also pursued studies that rely entirely on observations or laboratory experiments, and long ago I joined a research cruise to the Bellingshausen Sea (during which I wrote a blog).

Rather than identifying as an ‘oceanographer’, ‘modeller’, ‘physicist’, ‘climate scientist’, ‘mathematician’, etc. I’d like to just be a general scientist that tries to address important ice and ocean questions by whatever means are needed. This usually means working with other scientists with different expertise, and it turns out I enjoy that part. Some people just radiate clarity, and I am always happy to be near one of those. For me there is a strong aesthetic quality to good science, and there is nothing I like better than to see a game-changing result presented in a neat way. I also like to have a bit of a laugh during work hours, which is lucky because the modern scientific life seems to throw up plenty of amusing situations.

Chronology

2020-present   Individual Merit Scientist, British Antarctic Survey
2019-present   Honorary Professor, University of Bristol
2016-2022   Honorary Lecturer, University of East Anglia
2015-2022   Visiting Fellow, University of Southampton
2015-2020   Shelf Seas Group Leader, British Antarctic Survey
2010-2015   Ocean Modeller, British Antarctic Survey
2009-2012   Associate Lecturer, Open University
2005-2010   Ice-Ocean Modeller, British Antarctic Survey
2003-2005   Post-doctoral Researcher, CPOM, University College London
2001-2003   Ocean Model Development Scientist, Met Office
1998-2001   Ph.D., Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, Loughborough University
1995-1998   B.Sc. Maths with Environmental Science, University of East Anglia

Ph.D. Students I have suffered

2023-present    Emma Cameron (St Andrews)
2022-present    Katie Lowery (BAS/Leeds)
2022-present    Katherine Turner (BAS/Southampton)
2021-2025    Joséphine Anselin (BAS/Cambridge)
2020-2025    Emma White (Northumbria)
2019-2023    Will Scott (Imperial)
2019-2023    Jo Zanker (BAS/Southampton)
2017-2021    Leo Middleton (Cambridge)
2016-2021    Rachael Sanders (BAS/Southampton)
2016-2020    Lianne Harrison (BAS/UEA)
2016-2020    David Bett (BAS/Southampton)
2015-2019    Rebecca Frew (Reading)
2014-2018    Erik Mackie (Bristol)
2014-2018    Ben Yeager (Imperial)
2014-2018    Ryan Patmore (BAS/Southampton)
2013-2017    Heather Regan (BAS/Cardiff)
2012-2017    Mohamed Elmaghrbi (Nottingham)
2011-2014    Jim Jordan (BAS/Imperial)
2010-2014    Tom Millgate (BAS/Oxford)
2010-2013    Alek Petty (University College London)
2008-2012    Carl Gladish (New York University)

Postdocs who have suffered me

2025-present   Christina Schmidt
2025-present   Josué Martínez-Moreno
2023-present   Birgit Rogalla
2023-present   Yavor Kostov
2023-present   Tarkan Bilge
2021-present   Michael Haigh
2020-present   David Bett
2020-2024   Felipe Gómez-Valdivia
2020-2023   Kaitlin Naughten
2019-2022   Stefanie Mack
2019-2022   Antony Siahaan
2019-2020   Louis Couston
2018-2019   Erik Mackie
2018-2020   Ryan Patmore
2017-2022   Caroline Holmes
2015-2017   Jim Jordan
2014-2016   Joakim Kjellsson
2013-2021   Sudipta Goswami
2013-2021   Ruth Mugford
2012-2013   Marius Årthun
2012-2013   Nicolas Bruneau
2011-2013   Jan De Rydt
2010-2014   Toshi Kimura
2009-2012   Clare Enright

List of publications

The below link just takes you to the NORA database.  For a better list, with PDFs, see http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/ph/pubs.html

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

• Lowery, K., Holland, P., Dutrieux, P., Hogg, A., & Gourmelen, N. (2025). MITgcm Model Outputs for the ocean in Pine Island Bay between 2011 and 2021 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/cbc6eb20-de95-457d-9000-c78b0ae9ee51

• Lowery, K., Dutrieux, P., Holland, P., Hogg, A., Gourmelen, N., & Wallis, B. (2025). Digital Elevation Models and Basal Melt Maps of Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf using CryoSat-2 Surface Elevation data, 2011-2023 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/d093b7b9-f590-48dd-8206-74d239cdbf30

• Bett, D., Bradley, A., Williams, R., Holland, P., Arthern, R., & Goldberg, D. (2024). Amundsen Sea sector MITgcm/WAVI coupled model output forced with idealised ocean boundary conditions over 180 years (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/baa5097e-5139-4d8b-8986-3cc84c3319b7

• Holland, P., Bevan, S., & Luckman, A. (2023). Output from model simulations of the ocean beneath Thwaites Glacier, VERSION 2 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/473eb97c-63a8-4002-8b72-e7f07b2ab228

• Holland, P., Bevan, S., & Luckman, A. (2023). Output from model simulations of the ocean beneath Thwaites Glacier. (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/30067e7b-93f8-4284-aa84-dab4eacd4520

• Bevan, S., Luckman, A., & Holland, P. (2023). Digital Elevation Models of Thwaites Glacier main trunk (2011-2022) (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/24aef4f2-3bfc-4014-88e8-34644fdc71a3

• Naughten, K., Holland, P., & De Rydt, J. (2023). Amundsen Sea MITgcm model output forced with CESM1 historical and future climate scenarios, 1920-2100 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/b692f76f-eac8-466a-a008-32e9ba3e7b44

• Holmes, C. (2022). Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/e67242f2-e9aa-4402-85a3-be42d13354af

• Bett, D., Holland, P., Naveira Garabato, A., Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Kimura, S., & Fleming, A. (2020). Model results of Amundsen Sea freshwater tracing and iceberg variation simulations (Version 1.0) [Data set]. UK Polar Data Centre, Natural Environment Research Council, UK Research & Innovation. https://doi.org/10.5285/8ad04d77-6a41-419a-b0d7-18eee743bf26

• Brisbourne, A., Hudson, T., & Holland, P. (2019). Seismic bathymetry data, Antarctic Peninsula, Larsen C Ice Shelf, 2016 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. UK Polar Data Centre, Natural Environment Research Council, UK Research & Innovation. https://doi.org/10.5285/315740b1-a7b9-4cf0-9521-86f046e33e9a

1. Understanding Greenland’s changing ice

   GIANT is a pioneering science project that will test the potential for early warning of a critical climate tipping point.

   Read more of: Understanding Greenland’s changing ice

   

2. PRESCIENT

   PRESCIENT supports long-term, strategically important measurements and capabilities for the wider science community.

   Read more of: PRESCIENT

   

3. Reducing uncertainty in sea-level predictions

   OCEAN:ICE studies how Antarctic ice and Southern Ocean processes drive sea-level rise and influence global climate, using new data and advanced ice–ocean–climate models.

   Read more of: Reducing uncertainty in sea-level predictions

   

4. Antarctic cyclones and sea ice movement

   ACES (Antarctic Cyclones: Expression in Sea-ice) addressed the issue of how sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean changes when a high intensity storm passes over the ice.

   Read more of: Antarctic cyclones and sea ice movement

   

5. Real Projections

   Real Projections focused on understanding the processes driving sea ice variability and change, combining observational data with climate model outputs to produce more robust projections of future Antarctic sea ice area under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

   Read more of: Real Projections

   

6. Melting at Thwaites Grounding Zone and its Control on Sea Level

   MELT is an ice-based project that will use autonomous sensors to monitor the ice column and ocean beneath the ice shelf in the critical area of the grounding line (the point where the glacier goes afloat to become ice shelf).

   Read more of: Melting at Thwaites Grounding Zone and its Control on Sea Level

   

7. Ocean forcing of ice-sheet change

   The OFIC project studied how ocean heat drove ice loss in rapidly retreating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet.

   Read more of: Ocean forcing of ice-sheet change

   

8. How melt ponds weaken the ice shelf

   MIDAS investigates how climate warming affects the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica. The project studies the formation of large summer melt ponds and their influence on ice shelf structure and stability. Fieldwork, satellite observation, and computer simulations are used to understand these processes.

   Read more of: How melt ponds weaken the ice shelf

   

9. The UK Earth System Modelling project (UKESM-BAS)

   UKESM-BAS contributes to the UK Earth System Model by coupling the BISICLES ice sheet model with global climate models to improve sea level rise projections, and by developing satellite-based techniques to assess sea ice predictions.

   Read more of: The UK Earth System Modelling project (UKESM-BAS)

   

10. Rothera Time Series

    Earth System indicators in Antarctica

    Read more of: Rothera Time Series

    

The list above is automatically generated, and frankly a bit strange.

1. Regional data highlights emerging climate change signals

   A greater understanding of how climate change impacts at a regional level is vital to developing effective climate policies that protect communities from escalating risks.

   Read more of: Regional data highlights emerging climate change signals

   

2. Increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting ‘unavoidable’

   The West Antarctic Ice Sheet will continue to increase its rate of melting over the rest of the century, no matter how much we reduce fossil fuel use, according to British Antarctic Survey (BAS) research published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

   Read more of: Increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting ‘unavoidable’

   

3. BAS science funded by Pushing the Frontiers scheme

   Natural Environment Research Council’s pioneering Pushing the Frontiers scheme has funded four projects led by scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS). The projects, which received grants totaling £3.8m, are part […]

   Read more of: BAS science funded by Pushing the Frontiers scheme

   

4. Extreme snowfall in West Antarctica driving sea-level rise

   A new study highlights how extreme snowfall events significantly alter the amount of ice lost by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. A team of scientists from British Antarctic Survey, along […]

   Read more of: Extreme snowfall in West Antarctica driving sea-level rise

   

5. New link between greenhouse gases and sea-level rise

   Researchers have used advanced ocean modelling techniques to reveal how greenhouse gas emissions contribute to warmer oceans and resulting melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

   Read more of: New link between greenhouse gases and sea-level rise

   

6. Climate extremes drive changes in Antarctic Bottom Water

   British Antarctic Survey contributes to new international study that finds a surprising increase in the amount of dense water sinking near Antarctica, following 50 years of decline. Dense water formed […]

   Read more of: Climate extremes drive changes in Antarctic Bottom Water

   

7. State of the Polar Oceans report published

   Report published July 2018

   Read more of: State of the Polar Oceans report published

   

8. New footage shows crack in Larsen C Ice Shelf

   British Antarctic Survey (BAS) recently captured this video footage of a huge crack in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, on the Antarctic Peninsula. Currently a huge iceberg, roughly the size […]

   Read more of: New footage shows crack in Larsen C Ice Shelf

   

9. Wind-blown Antarctic sea ice helps drive ocean circulation

   Antarctic sea ice is constantly on the move as powerful winds blow it away from the coast and out toward the open ocean. A new study published today in the journal Nature Geoscience (Monday 27 June) shows how that ice migration may be more important for the global ocean circulation than anyone realized.

   Read more of: Wind-blown Antarctic sea ice helps drive ocean circulation

   

10. NEWS STORY: Sea levels rising faster in Antarctica

    Antarctic sea-level rising faster than global rate A new study of satellite data from the last 19 years reveals that fresh water from melting glaciers has caused the sea-level around […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Sea levels rising faster in Antarctica

    

11. NEWS STORY: Glacier thinning at point of no return

    Focus on Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica Pine Island Glacier, on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is the largest single contributor to sea-level rise in Antarctica.  The stability of the […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Glacier thinning at point of no return

    

12. PRESS RELEASE: Pine Island Glacier and climatic variability

    Pine Island Glacier sensitive to climatic variability A new study published in Science this month suggests the thinning of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is much more susceptible to […]

    Read more of: PRESS RELEASE: Pine Island Glacier and climatic variability

    

13. NEWS STORY: Staff head into deep Antarctica

    British Antarctic Survey field season is underway On the eve of the centenary year of Ernest Shackleton’s Endurance Expedition the ship which bears his name is playing a crucial role […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Staff head into deep Antarctica

    

14. NEWS STORY: Climate change effects on shellfish

    BAS takes the lead in ambitious science programme to aid fishing industry and monitor effects of climate change on Europe’s shellfish The supply of shellfish we buy at the supermarket […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Climate change effects on shellfish

    

15. PRESS RELEASE Age and Antarctic clams

    Age matters to Antarctic clams A new study of Antarctic clams reveals that age matters when it comes to adapting to the effects of climate change. The research provides new […]

    Read more of: PRESS RELEASE Age and Antarctic clams

    

16. NEWS STORY: Storm events link identified

    Jet stream influences extreme storms A new study of Europe’s extreme storm events reveals that they often occur near  the jet stream – the fast flowing air currents that flow […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Storm events link identified

    

17. PRESS RELEASE: Increase in melt rates on Antarctic Peninsula

    New insight into accelerating summer ice melt on the Antarctic Peninsula A new 1000-year Antarctic Peninsula climate reconstruction shows that summer ice melting has intensified almost ten-fold, and mostly since […]

    Read more of: PRESS RELEASE: Increase in melt rates on Antarctic Peninsula

    

18. PRESS RELEASE: Summer melt season extending

    Summer melt season is getting longer on the Antarctic Peninsula, new data show New research from the Antarctic Peninsula shows that the summer melt season has been getting longer over […]

    Read more of: PRESS RELEASE: Summer melt season extending

    

19. NEWS STORY: Greenland ice shows past trends

    Greenland ice core reveals warm past temperatures British Antarctic Survey scientists have contributed to a new study published in Nature (Thursday 24 January) that provides surprising details on changes in […]

    Read more of: NEWS STORY: Greenland ice shows past trends

    

20. PRESS RELEASE: Changing winds increasing sea ice cover

    Why Antarctic sea ice cover has increased under the effects of climate change The first direct evidence that marked changes to Antarctic sea ice drift have occurred over the last […]

    Read more of: PRESS RELEASE: Changing winds increasing sea ice cover