kaight@bas.ac.uk

Kaitlin Naughten is an ocean modeller specialising in interactions between the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Southern Ocean, and the broader climate system. Her research primarily focuses on the future of Antarctic ice shelf cavities in a warming climate, including warm cavities which could get even warmer (Amundsen Sea ice shelves), as well as cold cavities which could suddenly flip to a warm state (Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves).

Kaitlin has specialised in regional settings (Weddell Sea, Amundsen Sea) as well as circum-Antarctic and global. She now leads BAS’ involvement in the UK Earth System Model, the world’s first global climate model with a fully coupled Antarctic Ice Sheet.

In 2026 Kaitlin was honoured to receive the EGU’s Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Early Career Scientists.

Employment and education

2022-present: Ocean/Ice Climate Modeller (BAS)
2020-2022: Ocean/Ice Modeller Amundsen Sea (BAS)
2018-2020: Ocean/Ice Modeller MITgcm (BAS)
2014-2018: PhD (University of New South Wales, Australia)
2010-2014: BSc (University of Manitoba, Canada)

Line management

Nicolas Dettling (2025-present)
Birgit Rogalla (2023-present)
Tarkan Bilge (2023-present)
Katherine Turner (PhD; 2022-present)
Joren Janzing (MSc; 2021-2022)

Outreach

Expert witness to the UK Government’s Environmental Audit Sub-Committee on Polar Research (2023)
Kaitlin’s Nature Climate Change paper, “Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century”, was the #7 most covered climate paper of 2023.

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2026

Reese, Ronja ORCID record for Reese, Ronja. De Rydt, Jan ORCID record for De Rydt, Jan. Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. (2026) Ice‐Sheet–Ocean Interactions and the Reversibility of a Regime Shift Beneath Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf.

Smith, Robin S. ORCID record for Smith, Robin S.. Bilge, Tarkan A. ORCID record for Bilge, Tarkan A.. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Kuhlbrodt, Till ORCID record for Kuhlbrodt, Till. Lang, Charlotte ORCID record for Lang, Charlotte. Liddicoat, Spencer. Mitcham, Tom ORCID record for Mitcham, Tom. Mulcahy, Jane ORCID record for Mulcahy, Jane. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Orr, Andrew ORCID record for Orr, Andrew. Palmieri, Julien ORCID record for Palmieri, Julien. Payne, Antony J. ORCID record for Payne, Antony J.. Rumbold, Steven. Stringer, Marc ORCID record for Stringer, Marc. Swaminathan, Ranjini ORCID record for Swaminathan, Ranjini. Taylor, Sarah. Walton, Jeremy ORCID record for Walton, Jeremy. Jones, Colin ORCID record for Jones, Colin. (2026) Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model.

2025

Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. ORCID record for Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.. Porter-Smith, Richard ORCID record for Porter-Smith, Richard. Cook, Sue ORCID record for Cook, Sue. Cougnon, Eva. Gwyther, David E. ORCID record for Gwyther, David E.. Huneke, Wilma G. C. ORCID record for Huneke, Wilma G. C.. Rosevear, Madelaine G. ORCID record for Rosevear, Madelaine G.. Asay-Davis, Xylar ORCID record for Asay-Davis, Xylar. Boeira Dias, Fabio. Dinniman, Michael S. ORCID record for Dinniman, Michael S.. Holland, David. Kusahara, Kazuya ORCID record for Kusahara, Kazuya. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Nicholls, Keith W. ORCID record for Nicholls, Keith W.. Pelletier, Charles ORCID record for Pelletier, Charles. Richter, Ole. Seroussi, Hélène ORCID record for Seroussi, Hélène. Timmermann, Ralph. (2025) Multi-model estimate of Antarctic ice-shelf basal mass budget and ocean drivers.

Williams, Joel ORCID record for Williams, Joel. Foster, Scott. Woolley, Skip. Ziegler, Philippe. Masere, Cara. Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. Ovaskainen, Otso ORCID record for Ovaskainen, Otso. Johnson, Craig. Hill, Nicole. (2025) Climate Change, Fisheries Management, and Increases in Demersal Fish Distribution in a Southern Ocean Biodiversity Hotspot.

Turner, K.A. ORCID record for Turner, K.A.. Naughten, K.A. ORCID record for Naughten, K.A.. Holland, P.R. ORCID record for Holland, P.R.. Naveira Garabato, A.C. (2025) Modeled centennial ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea driven by thermodynamic atmospheric changes, not winds.

Sallée, Jean-Baptiste. Morrison, Adele K. Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. Thompson, Andrew F. Editors: Meredith, M. ORCID record for Meredith, M.. Melbourne-Thomas, J. Naveira Garabato, A.C. Raphael, M (2025) Chapter 4: Southern Ocean Circulation.

2024

Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar. Jenkins, Adrian. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. (2024) Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios.

De Rydt, Jan. Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. (2024) Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica.

2023

Huneke, W.G.C. Hobbs, W.R. Klocker, A. Naughten, K.A. ORCID record for Naughten, K.A.. (2023) Dynamic Response to Ice Shelf Basal Meltwater Relevant to Explain Observed Sea Ice Trends Near the Antarctic Continental Shelf.

Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. De Rydt, Jan. (2023) Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century.

Reese, Ronja. Garbe, Julius. Hill, Emily A. Urruty, Benoît. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Gagliardini, Olivier. Durand, Gaël. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar. Chandler, David. Langebroek, Petra M. Winkelmann, Ricarda. (2023) The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded.

2022

Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. O'Connor, Gemma K. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Dutrieux, Pierre ORCID record for Dutrieux, Pierre. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Steig, Eric J. Schneider, David P. Jenkins, Adrian. Smith, James A. ORCID record for Smith, James A.. (2022) Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries.

Silvano, Alessandro. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Dragomir, Oana. Dutrieux, Pierre ORCID record for Dutrieux, Pierre. Jenkins, Adrian. Si, Yidongfang. Stewart, Andrew L. Peña Molino, Beatriz. Janzing, Gregor W. Dotto, Tiago S. Naveira Garabato, Alberto C. (2022) Baroclinic Ocean Response to Climate Forcing Regulates Decadal Variability of Ice‐Shelf Melting in the Amundsen Sea.

Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Dutrieux, Pierre ORCID record for Dutrieux, Pierre. Kimura, Satoshi. Bett, David T. ORCID record for Bett, David T.. Jenkins, Adrian. (2022) Simulated twentieth-century ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica.

2021

Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. De Rydt, Jan. Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Jenkins, Adrian. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Ridley, Jeff K. (2021) Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change.

2020

Daae, K. Hattermann, T. Darelius, E. Mueller, R. Naughten, K. ORCID record for Naughten, K.. Timmerman, R. Hellmer, H.H. (2020) Necessary conditions for warm inflow towards the Filchner Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea.

Richter, Ole. Gwyther, David E. Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. (2020) The Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM v1.0): Development and evaluation.

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Krinner, Gerhard. Tonelli, Marcos. Haumann, F. Alexander. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Rackow, Thomas. Roach, Lettie A. Wainer, Ilana. (2020) Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6.

2019

Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. Jenkins, Adrian ORCID record for Jenkins, Adrian. Holland, Paul ORCID record for Holland, Paul. Mugford, Ruth. Nicholls, Keith ORCID record for Nicholls, Keith. Munday, Dave ORCID record for Munday, Dave. (2019) Modeling the influence of the Weddell Polynya on the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity.

Golledge, Nicholas R. Keller, Elizabeth D. Gomez, Natalya. Naughten, Kaitlin ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin. Bernales, Jorge. Trusel, Luke D. Edwards, Tamsin L. (2019) Global environmental consequences of 21st century ice sheet melt.

Publications before joining BAS

Please note Kaitlin’s former surname Alexander.

Naughten, K.A., Meissner, K.J., Galton-Fenzi, B.K., England, M.H., Timmermann, R., Hellmer, H.H. (2018) Future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting based on CMIP5 scenarios. Journal of Climate, 31: 5243-5261, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0854.1.

Naughten, K.A., Meissner, K.J., Galton-Fenzi, B.K., England, M.H., Timmermann, R., Hellmer, H.H., Hattermann, T., Debernard, J.B. (2018) Intercomparison of Antarctic ice-shelf, ocean, and sea-ice interactions simulated by MetROMS-iceshelf and FESOM 1.4. Geoscientific Model Development, 11: 1257-1292, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018.

Naughten, K.A., Galton-Fenzi, B.K., Meissner, K.J., England, M.H., Brassington, G.B., Colberg, F., Hattermann, T., Debernard, J.B. (2017) Spurious sea ice formation caused by oscillatory ocean tracer advection schemes. Ocean Modelling, 116: 108-117, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.06.010.

Alexander, K., Meissner, K.J., Bralower, T.J. (2015) Sudden spreading of corrosive bottom water during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8: 458-461, doi:10.1038/ngeo2430.

Alexander, K., Easterbrook, S.M. (2015) The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 8: 1221-1232, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1221-2015.

Meissner, K.J., Bralower, T.J., Alexander, K., Dunkley Jones, T., Sijp, W., Ward, M. (2014) The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: How much carbon is enough? Paleoceanography, 29: 946-963, doi:10.1002/2014PA002650.

Bralower, T.J., Meissner, K.J., Alexander, K., Thomas, D.J. (2014) The dynamics of global change at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: A data-model comparison. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 15: 3830-3848, doi:10.1002/2014GC005474.

Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Weaver, A.J., Alexander, K., et al. (2013) Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 26: 5782-5809, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1.

Eby, M., Weaver, A.J., Alexander, K., et al. (2013) Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past, 9: 1111-1140, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013.

Weaver, A.J., Sedlacek, J., Eby, M., Alexander, K., et al. (2012) Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. Geophysical Research Letters, 39: L20709, doi:10.1029/2012GL053763.

• Turner, K., & Naughten, K. (2024). Analysis output of the MITgcm ocean model data for the Amundsen Sea (1920 to 2100) (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/8a2b18eb-4720-4a40-a52a-b8f571b26b28

• Naughten, K., Holland, P., & De Rydt, J. (2023). Amundsen Sea MITgcm model output forced with CESM1 historical and future climate scenarios, 1920-2100 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/b692f76f-eac8-466a-a008-32e9ba3e7b44

• Naughten, K. (2022). Amundsen Sea MITgcm model output forced with Pacific Pacemaker Ensemble, 1920-2013 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/a4ea4d64-169a-4981-a64d-c2604b52522e

17. SO-WISE

    SO-WISE addresses a critical knowledge gap in understanding how warm ocean water reaches and melts the undersides of West Antarctic ice shelves, which is currently the largest source of uncertainty in global sea level rise projections.

    Read more of: SO-WISE

    

18. Diversity in UK Polar Science Initiative – Key outcomes

    A series of events and activities to raise awareness of opportunities in UK Polar Science

    Read more of: Diversity in UK Polar Science Initiative – Key outcomes

    

• TerraFIRMA
• AnthroFAIL
• ISOTIPIC
• DEFIANT
• PROMOTE
• SO-SIMMER

1. Make sure stammered voices are heard

   Blog: Ocean modeller Dr Kaitlin Naughten discusses what we can do as individuals and as institutions to support our colleagues who stammer.

   Read more of: Make sure stammered voices are heard

   

1. Increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting ‘unavoidable’

   The West Antarctic Ice Sheet will continue to increase its rate of melting over the rest of the century, no matter how much we reduce fossil fuel use, according to British Antarctic Survey (BAS) research published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

   Read more of: Increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting ‘unavoidable’

   

2. New link between greenhouse gases and sea-level rise

   Researchers have used advanced ocean modelling techniques to reveal how greenhouse gas emissions contribute to warmer oceans and resulting melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

   Read more of: New link between greenhouse gases and sea-level rise

   

3. The world’s largest iceberg

   An enormous iceberg has calved from the western side of the Ronne Ice Shelf, in Antarctica. The iceberg, newly named A-76, measures around 4320 sq km in size and is […]

   Read more of: The world’s largest iceberg

   

4. Celebrating International Day of Women & Girls in Science

   International Day of Women and Girls in Science today (11 February) is a celebration of women and girls in science and is organised by UNESCO and UN-Women. To mark this […]

   Read more of: Celebrating International Day of Women & Girls in Science

   

5. Study shows melting ice sheets will disrupt climate

   Water entering the oceans from melting ice sheets could cause extreme weather and a change in ocean circulation not currently accounted for in global climate policies, a new study published […]

   Read more of: Study shows melting ice sheets will disrupt climate