Whole Atmosphere Climate Change
Whole Atmosphere Climate Change project investigated how human-driven climate change in the lower atmosphere affects upper atmosphere conditions up to 500 km altitude.
Ingrid Cnossen
Independent Research Fellow
Profile
I am an Independent Research Fellow within the Space Weather and Atmosphere team at BAS. My research focuses on the climate of the upper atmosphere and interactions between the lower and upper atmosphere using numerical models. Alongside my own research, I offer modelling support to projects led by others as well as expertise on upper atmosphere climate. I also provide stakeholders in the space industry with information on long-term changes in the upper atmosphere and impacts on space debris.
Key areas of expertise
- Atmospheric modelling, in particular with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – eXtended (WACCM-X)
- Climate change in the middle and upper atmosphere
- North-South asymmetries in the polar atmosphere
Biography
In 2005 I received a Master of Science degree from Utrecht University (The Netherlands) in the field of Earth Sciences, with a specialization in geophysics. As part of this, I did an internship at the European Space Agency, studying the Sun and its effects on the Earth’s atmosphere as it would have been around the orgin of life, 3.5 billion years ago. This ignited my interest in solar-terrestrial physics as well as a love for research in general, especially in an international setting. It set me on the path of a PhD at the University of Leicester (Leicester, UK; 2006-2008), where I studied climate change in the upper atmosphere (~90-500 km altitude) and in particular the the effects of changes in the Earth’s magnetic field on the ionosphere, the charged portion of the upper atmosphere. After a first post-doctoral position at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS; Cambridge, UK; 2009-2010) studying troposphere-stratosphere coupling, I continued to study the role of the Earth’s magnetic field in the climate of the upper atmosphere in further research posts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; Boulder, USA; 2011-2012), BAS (2013-2015) and the German Center for Geosciences (Potsdam, Germany; 2016). This has included its role in long-term (climatic) changes as well as systematic asymmetries between the Northern and Southern polar regions. I have been an Independent Research Fellow (IRF) at BAS since Dec 2018, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). My fellowship focuses on the effects of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere (0-90 km altitude) on the upper atmosphere (90-500 km altitude), using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension (WACCM-X).
Research interests
- Effects of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere (0-90 km altitude) on the upper atmosphere (90-500 km altitude)
- Vertical atmospheric coupling processes
- North-South asymmetries in the polar atmosphere
- Effects of changes in the Earth’s main magnetic field on the atmosphere and magnetosphere
- Long-term (multi-decadal) changes and trends in the upper atmosphere (ionosphere and thermosphere)
- Impact of climate change in the upper atmosphere on space debris
Collaborations
- I work with Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton on the impacts of upper atmosphere climate change on the future evolution of the space debris population
- I am co-leader of an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team on “Impacts of climate change on the middle and upper atmosphere and atmospheric drag of space objects” . For further information see our team website: https://teams.issibern.ch/impactsofclimatechange/
- I am a member of an ISSI team on “Understanding Interhemispheric Asymmetry in MIT Coupling”. For further information see our team website: https://teams.issibern.ch/asymmetryinmitcoupling/
- I also work collaboratively with the wider scientific community studying long-term trends in the middle and upper atmosphere. A recent review I led is available here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724010123
Cnossen, I. (2015). Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere simulations for March equinox, June solstice and December solstice for solar maximum and minimum conditions (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/00830
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NERC Independent Research Fellowship ““Impacts of Climate Change in the Troposphere, Stratosphere, and Mesosphere on the Thermosphere and Ionosphere”
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- My work influenced a new ISO standard (#27852) on “Space systems – Estimation of orbit lifetimes” (published in 2024). This now includes information on the long-term decline in upper atmosphere density due to CO2-induced cooling and contraction, and the impact this has on orbital lifetime estimates. The new guidelines also include a straightforward methodology to enable stakeholders in the satellite industry to account for this effect easily, developed by Matthew Brown, a former PhD student co-supervised by Andrew Kavanagh and myself at BAS.
- Recognition for the following paper, which was in the top 10% of papers downloaded (among work published in an issue between 1 January 2022 – 31 December 2022) during its first 12 months of publication in Geophysical Research Letters: Cnossen, I. (2022), A realistic projection of climate change in the upper atmosphere into the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100693, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100693.
- Recognition for the following paper, which was one of the most downloaded (among work published in an issue between 1 January 2021 – 31 December 2021) during its first 12 months of publication in JGR Atmospheres: Brown, M.K., H.G. Lewis, A.J. Kavanagh, and I. Cnossen (2021), Future decreases in thermospheric neutral density in low Earth orbit due to carbon dioxide emissions, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034589, doi: 10.1029/2021JD034589.