I am an ocean/sea-ice modeller in the Shelf Seas group of the Polar Oceans Team at the British Antarctic Survey. My current research as part of the DEFIANT project is aimed at evaluating and improving the representation of Antarctic sea-ice in the HadGEM3-GC5 coupled climate model so that it can be used to better understand Antarctic sea-ice trends and the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in the Antarctic. Existing on the interface between atmosphere and ocean, sea-ice can cause rapid changes in our climate via ocean-ice and atmosphere-ice feedbacks, as visible in the Arctic over recent decades. Accurately modelling sea-ice is therefore crucial in order to produce meaningful predictions of future climate, but Antarctic sea-ice is challenging to model because of the prerequisites of accurately modelling ocean mixing, freshwater forcing, and atmospheric conditions.

My main research interest is in understanding the role that natural variability plays in our climate system, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic. I am particularly interested in measuring the extent to which solar variability influences weather and climate, and understanding the dynamical mechanisms that propagate this influence through the atmosphere. I am also interested in statistical and machine-learning methods for attribution, including non-linear models and clustering techniques.

I completed my BSc in Physics at the University of St Andrews, and my MSc in Physics at University College London, where I wrote my dissertation on the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on Arctic sea-ice. After this, I worked as a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, where I wrote a study comparing sea-ice thickness forecasts in the Barents Sea. I then moved to the Climate Prediction Unit at the University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, where I held a technical position and worked on seasonal forecasting. Finally, in 2023, I began working at the British Antarctic Survey as part of the DEFIANT project.

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2026

Smith, Robin S. ORCID record for Smith, Robin S.. Bilge, Tarkan A. ORCID record for Bilge, Tarkan A.. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID record for Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Holland, Paul R. ORCID record for Holland, Paul R.. Kuhlbrodt, Till ORCID record for Kuhlbrodt, Till. Lang, Charlotte ORCID record for Lang, Charlotte. Liddicoat, Spencer. Mitcham, Tom ORCID record for Mitcham, Tom. Mulcahy, Jane ORCID record for Mulcahy, Jane. Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID record for Naughten, Kaitlin A.. Orr, Andrew ORCID record for Orr, Andrew. Palmieri, Julien ORCID record for Palmieri, Julien. Payne, Antony J. ORCID record for Payne, Antony J.. Rumbold, Steven. Stringer, Marc ORCID record for Stringer, Marc. Swaminathan, Ranjini ORCID record for Swaminathan, Ranjini. Taylor, Sarah. Walton, Jeremy ORCID record for Walton, Jeremy. Jones, Colin ORCID record for Jones, Colin. (2026) Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model.

Suárez-Moreno, Roberto. Svendsen, Lea. Counillon, François. Bilge, Tarkan A. ORCID record for Bilge, Tarkan A.. Nair, Akhilesh S. Bethke, Ingo. (2026) Prediction skill of ENSO and ENSO teleconnections in NorCPM: A comparative analysis with C3S.