West Antarctica and future sea-level rise: a workshop to identify priorities for research and collaboration in West Antarctica; Royal Society, London 3rd and 4th March 2016

Since the 1990s, satellites have shown accelerating ice-loss driven by ocean change in the neighbouring glacier basins that drain more than one-third of West Antarctica into the Amundsen Sea. The rate of ice-loss here doubled in just six years and now accounts for a significant fraction of global sea-level rise. However, considerable uncertainty remains in projections of future ice-loss from West Antarctica, and in the last 18 months, separate modelling teams working in the UK and US have identified Thwaites Glacier as having the highest potential of all for future rapid ice loss and collapse. Reducing uncertainty around the future contribution of Thwaites Glacier to sea-level rise requires a substantial and coordinated collaboration involving a multidisciplinary and international scientific community, with logistic support from more than one national Antarctic programme. The recent identification of the projection of sea-level rise as among the highest priorities for Antarctic research, by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Horizon Scan, and by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, has provided compelling stimulus to act to establish an integrated and strategic science plan in this area. This process began in January, 2016 with a workshop in Denver Colorado, and continues with the workshop reported here. A major multi-disciplinary research programme focused on the Amundsen Sea embayment, and Thwaites Glacier in particular, could substantially improve both decadal and long-term (multi-century) projections of ice-loss and sea-level rise, and support improved management of risk for vulnerable coastal communities in the UK and US and elsewhere. This workshop was convened to build on recent discussions, to identify, refine and agree future priorities for collaborative research in this crucial area of Antarctic science.

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