Toward an integrated framework on AMOC stability: Combining theory, observations, paleoclimate records, model simulations and AI

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in regulating global heat and hydrological redistributions. A primary concern regarding AMOC is its potential future collapse, as suggested by paleoclimate records and the indications coming from models of different levels of complexity. Different approaches have been applied to investigate AMOC stability and project its future evolution, yet critical challenges persist, such as incomplete understanding of driving mechanisms, short observation duration, limitations in paleoclimate reconstructions, persistent model biases and methodological constraints in tipping-point predictions. For more accurate projections of future AMOC variability, we suggest using paleoclimate tipping events as benchmarks for validating understanding and simulations of AMOC tipping, and propose an integrated research framework on AMOC stability that combines theory, observations, paleoclimate records, model simulations and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The strategy mainly includes three steps: paleoclimate simulations, model-data comparison and model selection, and deep learning.

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